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Exchange-Rate Volatility and Industry Trade Between Japan and China

Listed author(s):
  • Bahmani-Oskooee Mohsen

    ()

    (University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee)

  • Hegerty Scott W.

    ()

    (Northeastern Illinois University)

  • Xu Jia

    ()

    (St. Mary’s College of Maryland)

Exchange-rate risk is often thought to reduce international trade flows, but numerous theoretical and empirical analyses have pointed toward positive as well as negative effects. This is particularly true when bilateral trade flows for individual industries are estimated. In this study, we extend the literature to the case of Japanese trade with China for 110 import industries and 95 export industries. Aggregate Japanese exports, but not imports, respond to real exchange rate volatility in the long run, while most individual export and import industries respond in the short run. Although many individual Japanese import industries are affected in the long run by risk, mostly negatively, this is even more the case for exporters. A larger proportion of Japanese export industries are affected by exchange rate uncertainty for most industry sectors. Manufacturing exports are particularly vulnerable to this risk, with a large share responding negatively to increased volatility.

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File URL: https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/gej.2012.12.issue-3/1524-5861.1855/1524-5861.1855.xml?format=INT
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Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Global Economy Journal.

Volume (Year): 12 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 1-21

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:glecon:v:12:y:2012:i:3:n:2
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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Chou, W. L., 2000. "Exchange Rate Variability and China's Exports," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 61-79, March.
  2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  3. Ferda Halicioglu, 2007. "The J-curve dynamics of Turkish bilateral trade: a cointegration approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 103-119, May.
  4. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2007. "Export-led growth hypothesis: evidence from Papua New Guinea and Fiji," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 341-351, September.
  5. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah, 2011. "Exchange-rate volatility and industry trade between the U.S. and Malaysia," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 127-155, June.
  6. Won-Cheol Yun, 2012. "Yuan revaluation and its implications," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 149-154, February.
  7. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
  8. Hassan Mohammadi, 2008. "Wagner's hypothesis: New evidence from Turkey using the bounds testing approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 94-106, January.
  9. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Hegerty, Scott W. & Kutan, Ali M., 2008. "Do nominal devaluations lead to real devaluations? Evidence from 89 countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 644-670, October.
  10. M Bahmani-Oskooee & Y Wang, 2007. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade between the U.S. and China," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 12(1), pages 31-52, March.
  11. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and trade flows: a review article," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 211-255, August.
  12. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Claire Economidou & Gour Gobinda Goswami, 2005. "How sensitive are Britain's inpayments and outpayments to the value of the British pound," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(5), pages 455-467, October.
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