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Persistence in U.S. State Unemployment Rates

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  • Peter S. Sephton

Abstract

Romero‐Ávila and Usabiaga (2007) find that many U.S. state unemployment rates are stationary, a result at odds with the traditional view that unemployment rates are path‐dependent and subject to shocks that have permanent effects. They base their results on multivariate unit root tests that provide for two breaks in mean. This note extends the analysis to directly examine whether the series were fractionally integrated. When no allowance is made for breaking means, the results suggest evidence in favor of hysteresis, an outcome that generally applies when one break in mean is considered. Allowing for two breaks demonstrates that the evidence in favor of the natural rate and the hysteresis hypotheses is temporally sensitive.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter S. Sephton, 2009. "Persistence in U.S. State Unemployment Rates," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(2), pages 458-466, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:76:y:2009:i:2:p:458-466
    DOI: 10.4284/sej.2009.76.2.458
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    1. Peter S. Sephton, 2012. "Persistence in U.S. State Unemployment Rates: Errata and Extensions," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(3), pages 1-9, January.
    2. Kim, In-Moo, 1997. "Detecting the number of structural breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 145-148, December.
    3. Peter S. Sephton, 2009. "Persistence in U.S. State Unemployment Rates," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(2), pages 458-466, October.
    4. Peter S. Sephton, 2009. "Persistence in U.S. State Unemployment Rates," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 458-466, October.
    5. Diego Romero-Avila & Carlos Usabiaga, 2007. "Unit root tests and persistence of unemployment: Spain vs. the United States," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 457-461.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cheng, Ka Ming, 2022. "Doubts on natural rate of unemployment: Evidence and policy implications," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 230-239.
    2. Peter S. Sephton, 2012. "Persistence in U.S. State Unemployment Rates: Errata and Extensions," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(3), pages 1-9, January.
    3. De-Chih Liu, 2023. "Unemployment persistence with an evolutionary perspective: job creation or destruction (or both)?," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 83-109, April.
    4. Martin Boďa & Petra Medveďová & Mariana Považanová, 2015. "(A)symetria v Okunovom zákone v štátoch Vyšehradskej skupiny [(A)symmetry in Okun's Law in the Visegrad Group Countries]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(6), pages 741-758.
    5. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & M. Rose Olfert & Ying Tan, 2015. "When Spatial Equilibrium Fails: Is Place-Based Policy Second Best?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(8), pages 1303-1325, August.
    6. De-Chih Liu, 2011. "Hysteresis Hypothesis in Job Creation and Destruction: Evidence from the U.S," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 12(2), pages 389-409, November.

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