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Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise

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  • Michael Smithson
  • Yakov Ben‐Haim

Abstract

Many real‐world planning and decision problems are far too uncertain, too variable, and too complicated to support realistic mathematical models. Nonetheless, we explain the usefulness, in these situations, of qualitative insights from mathematical decision theory. We demonstrate the integration of info‐gap robustness in decision problems in which surprise and ignorance are predominant and where personal and collective psychological factors are critical. We present practical guidelines for employing adaptable‐choice strategies as a proxy for robustness against uncertainty. These guidelines include being prepared for more surprises than we intuitively expect, retaining sufficiently many options to avoid premature closure and conflicts among preferences, and prioritizing outcomes that are steerable, whose consequences are observable, and that do not entail sunk costs, resource depletion, or high transition costs. We illustrate these concepts and guidelines with the example of the medical management of the 2003 SARS outbreak in Vietnam.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Smithson & Yakov Ben‐Haim, 2015. "Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(10), pages 1911-1918, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:35:y:2015:i:10:p:1911-1918
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12397
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dhar, Ravi & Nowlis, Stephen M, 1999. "The Effect of Time Pressure on Consumer Choice Deferral," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 25(4), pages 369-384, March.
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    2. Gabriele Bammer & Michael O’Rourke & Deborah O’Connell & Linda Neuhauser & Gerald Midgley & Julie Thompson Klein & Nicola J. Grigg & Howard Gadlin & Ian R. Elsum & Marcel Bursztyn & Elizabeth A. Fulto, 2020. "Expertise in research integration and implementation for tackling complex problems: when is it needed, where can it be found and how can it be strengthened?," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(1), pages 1-16, December.

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