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Reflections on Risk Perception and Policy

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  • Harry Otway
  • Kerry Thomas

Abstract

This paper looks critically at the emergence and present status of risk analysis with the aim of assessing its usefulness for policy decisions on risk regulation and the acceptability of risk‐bearing innovations. The authors adopt a personal narrative to illustrate their own involvement in risk research and to comment on empirical trends that have resulted in the current fashion for risk workshops. The second part of the paper confronts specific issues in risk research. These are not new problems‐indeed several of the questions asked have been taken directly from a list used to structure a recent risk seminar; but the stand taken here is rather less conciliatory than is usual when these issues are discussed. The pessimistic message of this paper is that risk research, especially in the area of risk perception, is being used as a panacea with which to attempt to remedy what are essentially societal and political matters. Risk research is being used as a tool in a discourse which is not concerned with risks per se, nor with the cognitive processes by which people misperceive the risks of new technologies, but whose hidden agenda is the legitimacy of decision‐making institutions and the equitable distribution of hazards and benefits. The authors take a subjectivist view, not just of risk but in general, and query the natural science approach to risk perception, with its assumption that universal dimensions of risk perception can be discovered and used in policy‐making and setting regulatory standards. Although it is possible to collect subjective data on the wider meanings that risks and benefits associated with technological innovations have for lay publics, the interpretation and recombination of these data into useful policy guidelines is seen as fraught with technical and, above all, political problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Harry Otway & Kerry Thomas, 1982. "Reflections on Risk Perception and Policy," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(2), pages 69-82, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:2:y:1982:i:2:p:69-82
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01368.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Gerald A. Cole & Stephen B. Withey, 1981. "Perspectives on Risk Perceptions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(2), pages 143-163, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Neelke Doorn, 2015. "The Blind Spot in Risk Ethics: Managing Natural Hazards," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(3), pages 354-360, March.
    2. Frédéric Vandermoere, 2008. "Hazard Perception, Risk Perception, and the Need for Decontamination by Residents Exposed to Soil Pollution: The Role of Sustainability and the Limits of Expert Knowledge," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 387-398, April.
    3. Harry Otway, 1985. "Multidimensional Criteria for Technology Acceptability: A Response to Bernard L. Cohen," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(4), pages 271-273, December.
    4. Branden B. Johnson & Adam M. Finkel, 2016. "Public Perceptions of Regulatory Costs, Their Uncertainty and Interindividual Distribution," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(6), pages 1148-1170, June.
    5. Marco Semadeni & Ralf Hansmann & Thomas Flüeler, 2004. "Public Attitudes in Relation to Risk and Novelty of Future Energy Options," Energy & Environment, , vol. 15(5), pages 755-777, September.
    6. Mahmaod Alrawad & Abdalwali Lutfi & Mohammed Amin Almaiah & Adi Alsyouf & Hussin Mostafa Arafa & Yasser Soliman & Ibrahim A. Elshaer, 2023. "A Novel Framework of Public Risk Assessment Using an Integrated Approach Based on AHP and Psychometric Paradigm," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-17, June.
    7. Robert B. Cumming, 1982. "Risk and the Social Sciences," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(2), pages 47-48, June.
    8. Peter Kamstra & Brian Cook & David M. Kennedy & Barbara Brighton, 2018. "Treating risk as relational on shore platforms and implications for public safety on microtidal rocky coasts," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(3), pages 1299-1316, April.
    9. Piyapong Janmaimool & Tsunemi Watanabe, 2014. "Evaluating Determinants of Environmental Risk Perception for Risk Management in Contaminated Sites," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-23, June.

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