IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jmoncb/v57y2025i1p31-67.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Social Media Emotions and IPO Returns

Author

Listed:
  • DOMONKOS F. VAMOSSY

Abstract

I explore how investor emotions on StockTwits and Twitter affect initial public offering (IPO) returns. High pre‐IPO enthusiasm is linked to greater initial returns but eventual long‐term underperformance. IPOs with strong early excitement average a 29.73% initial return, but suffer a −8.22% long‐term industry‐adjusted return, showing a gap between early optimism and later results. Analysis of investor communication reveals that financial language and existing information influence these outcomes. There is a growing caution among frequent IPO investors, likely due to past experiences. Despite this, firms with initial high optimism continue to attract postlaunch interest, contradicting their long‐term underperformance.

Suggested Citation

  • Domonkos F. Vamossy, 2025. "Social Media Emotions and IPO Returns," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(1), pages 31-67, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:57:y:2025:i:1:p:31-67
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13152
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13152
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jmcb.13152?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefania Albanesi & Domonkos F. Vamossy, 2019. "Predicting Consumer Default: A Deep Learning Approach," Working Papers 2019-056, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    2. Sanjiv R. Das & Mike Y. Chen, 2007. "Yahoo! for Amazon: Sentiment Extraction from Small Talk on the Web," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(9), pages 1375-1388, September.
    3. Katrina Ellis & Roni Michaely & Maureen O'Hara, 2000. "When the Underwriter Is the Market Maker: An Examination of Trading in the IPO Aftermarket," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1039-1074, June.
    4. David Hirshleifer & Tyler Shumway, 2003. "Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1009-1032, June.
    5. Franҫois Derrien, 2005. "IPO Pricing in “Hot” Market Conditions: Who Leaves Money on the Table?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 487-521, February.
    6. Jiang, Li & Li, Gao, 2013. "Investor sentiment and IPO pricing during pre-market and aftermarket periods: Evidence from Hong Kong," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 65-82.
    7. Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens, 2019. "Machine Learning Methods That Economists Should Know About," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 685-725, August.
    8. Eduardo B. Andrade & Terrance Odean & Shengle Lin, 2016. "Bubbling with Excitement: An Experiment," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 447-466.
    9. Tim Loughran & Jay R. Ritter, 2002. "Why Don't Issuers Get Upset About Leaving Money on the Table in IPOs?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 413-444, March.
    10. Tim Loughran & Jay Ritter, 2004. "Why Has IPO Underpricing Changed Over Time?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 33(3), Fall.
    11. Domonkos F. Vamossy & Rolf Skog, 2021. "EmTract: Extracting Emotions from Social Media," Papers 2112.03868, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    12. Sendhil Mullainathan & Jann Spiess, 2017. "Machine Learning: An Applied Econometric Approach," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 87-106, Spring.
    13. Vamossy, Domonkos F., 2021. "Investor emotions and earnings announcements," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    14. J. Anthony Cookson & Marina Niessner, 2020. "Why Don't We Agree? Evidence from a Social Network of Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(1), pages 173-228, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Domonkos F. Vamossy, 2024. "Social Media Emotions and Market Behavior," Papers 2404.03792, arXiv.org.
    2. Domonkos F. Vamossy, 2023. "Social Media Emotions and IPO Returns," Papers 2306.12602, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    3. Domonkos F. Vamossy & Rolf Skog, 2021. "EmTract: Extracting Emotions from Social Media," Papers 2112.03868, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    4. Vamossy, Domonkos F., 2021. "Investor emotions and earnings announcements," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    5. Colak, Gonul & Fu, Mengchuan & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2022. "On modeling IPO failure risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    6. Cook, Douglas O. & Kieschnick, Robert & Van Ness, Robert A., 2006. "On the marketing of IPOs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 35-61, October.
    7. Colak, Gonul & Fu, Mengchuan & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2020. "Why are some Chinese firms failing in the US capital markets? A machine learning approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    8. Kenji Kutsuna & Janet Kiholm Smith & Richard L. Smith, 2009. "Public Information, IPO Price Formation, and Long‐Run Returns: Japanese Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(1), pages 505-546, February.
    9. Hoang, Daniel & Wiegratz, Kevin, 2022. "Machine learning methods in finance: Recent applications and prospects," Working Paper Series in Economics 158, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    10. Greene, Daniel, 2016. "The wealth of private firm owners following reverse mergers," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 56-75.
    11. Jeon, Jin Q. & Lee, Cheolwoo & Nasser, Tareque & Via, M. Tony, 2015. "Multiple lead underwriter IPOs and firm visibility," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 128-149.
    12. Oehler, Andreas & Rummer, Marco & Smith, Peter N., 2004. "IPO Pricing and the Relative Importance of Investor Sentiment: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 26, University of Bamberg, Chair of Finance.
    13. Chen, Peter F. & Hou, Qingchuan & Wang, Yihong & Xu, Lifang, 2024. "The underwriter's conflict of interest and earnings forecast bias in prospectus: Evidence from Hong Kong," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    14. Blomkvist, Magnus & Korkeamäki, Timo & Takalo, Tuomas, 2022. "Learning and staged equity financing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Zheng, Steven Xiaofan & Li, Mingsheng, 2008. "Underpricing, ownership dispersion, and aftermarket liquidity of IPO stocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 436-454, June.
    16. Paul B. McGuinness, 2016. "Post-IPO performance and its association with subscription cascades and issuers’ strategic-political importance," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 291-333, February.
    17. Saade, Samer, 2015. "Investor sentiment and the underperformance of technology firms initial public offerings," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 205-232.
    18. Fjesme, Sturla Lyngnes & Lv, Jin Roc & Shekhar, Chander, 2023. "The world cup in football and the US IPO market," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    19. Degeorge, François & Derrien, François & Womack, Kent L., 2010. "Auctioned IPOs: The US evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 177-194, November.
    20. Stefania Albanesi & Domonkos F. Vamossy, 2024. "Credit Scores: Performance and Equity," NBER Working Papers 32917, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:57:y:2025:i:1:p:31-67. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.