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Shock around the clock—on the causal relations between international stock markets, the strength of causality and the intensity of shock transmission: an econometric analysis

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  • Robert Dornau

Abstract

This paper investigates empirically the interrelationships between the daily stock market returns of the Nikkei 225, DAX and Dow Jones Industrial index. In contrast to former work this paper uses the succession of the markets in time to form different econometric models. In this way it is possible to detect causality not only from the USA to foreign countries but in some cases vice versa. The observation period is October 1985 to October 1997. Analysis of the structural properties leads to the examination of four separated periods. Results for Hosoya’s measure of the strength of causality and impulse response analysis facilitate a dynamic analysis of the causal structure. Increasing influence from NYSE to foreign markets can be shown, whereas influence of the foreign markets on the Dow Jones is decreasing. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Robert Dornau, 1999. "Shock around the clock—on the causal relations between international stock markets, the strength of causality and the intensity of shock transmission: an econometric analysis," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 253-270, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:isacfm:v:8:y:1999:i:4:p:253-270
    DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1174(199912)8:43.0.CO;2-K
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Steven J Cochran & Iqbal Mansur, 1991. "The Interrelationships Between U.S. and Foreign Equity Market Yields: Tests of Granger Causality," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 22(4), pages 723-736, December.
    2. Eun, Cheol S. & Shim, Sangdal, 1989. "International Transmission of Stock Market Movements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 241-256, June.
    3. Clive, W.J. & Lin, Jin-Lung, 1995. "Causality in the Long Run," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 530-536, June.
    4. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    5. Becker, Kent G & Finnerty, Joseph E & Gupta, Manoj, 1990. "The Intertemporal Relation between the U.S. and Japanese Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1297-1306, September.
    6. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    7. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1990. "Asymptotic Distributions of Impulse Response Functions and Forecast Error Variance Decompositions of Vector Autoregressive Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 116-125, February.
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