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A Quest for Knowledge

Author

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  • Christoph Carnehl
  • Johannes Schneider

Abstract

Is more novel research always desirable? We develop a model in which knowledge shapes society's policies and guides the search for discoveries. Researchers select a question and how intensely to study it. The novelty of a question determines both the value and difficulty of discovering its answer. We show that the benefits of discoveries are nonmonotone in novelty. Knowledge expands endogenously step‐by‐step over time. Through a dynamic externality, moonshots—research on questions more novel than what is myopically optimal—can improve the evolution of knowledge. Moonshots induce research cycles in which subsequent researchers connect the moonshot to previous knowledge.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Carnehl & Johannes Schneider, 2025. "A Quest for Knowledge," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 93(2), pages 623-659, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:93:y:2025:i:2:p:623-659
    DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22144
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin Davies, 2024. "Estimating sample paths of Gauss-Markov processes from noisy data," Papers 2404.00784, arXiv.org.
    2. Pietrovito, Filomena & Rancan, Antonella & Resce, Giuliano & Santangelo, Agapito Emanuele, 2026. "Do Fiscal Constraints Affect Health Inequality Research? A Bibliometric Perspective," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp26102, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    3. Benjamin Davies & Anirudh Sankar, 2025. "The value of conceptual knowledge," Papers 2509.09170, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    4. Nicholas Wu, 2026. "Solving Problems of Unknown Difficulty," Papers 2604.00156, arXiv.org.
    5. Smirnov, Aleksei & Starkov, Egor, 2025. "Designing social learning," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    6. Joshua Gans, 2026. "A Model of Artificial Jagged Intelligence," Papers 2601.07573, arXiv.org.
    7. Yongheng Hu, 2025. "The Nexus between Dataization and Technological Progress in General Equilibrium of Macroeconomics," Papers 2507.13274, arXiv.org, revised May 2026.
    8. Herbert Dawid & Philipp Harting & Hankui Wang & Zhongli Wang & Jiachen Yi, 2025. "Agentic Workflows for Economic Research: Design and Implementation," Papers 2504.09736, arXiv.org.

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