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Inferring Cognitive Heterogeneity From Aggregate Choices

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  • Valentino Dardanoni
  • Paola Manzini
  • Marco Mariotti
  • Christopher J. Tyson

Abstract

Theories of bounded rationality often assume a rich dataset of choices from many overlapping menus, limiting their practical applicability. In contrast, we study the problem of identifying the distribution of cognitive characteristics in a population of agents from a minimal dataset that consists of aggregate choice shares from a single menu, and includes no observable covariates of any kind. With homogeneous preferences, we find that “consideration capacity” and “consideration probability” distributions can both be recovered effectively if the menu is sufficiently large. This remains true generically when tastes are heterogeneous with a known distribution. When the taste distribution is unknown, we show that joint choice share data from three “occasions” are generically sufficient for full identification of the cognitive distribution, and also provide substantial information about tastes.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentino Dardanoni & Paola Manzini & Marco Mariotti & Christopher J. Tyson, 2020. "Inferring Cognitive Heterogeneity From Aggregate Choices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(3), pages 1269-1296, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:88:y:2020:i:3:p:1269-1296
    DOI: 10.3982/ECTA16382
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kops, Christopher, 2022. "Cluster-shortlisted choice," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    3. Victor H. Aguiar & Maria Jose Boccardi & Nail Kashaev & Jeongbin Kim, 2023. "Random utility and limited consideration," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), pages 71-116, January.
    4. Francesco Cerigioni, 2021. "Dual Decision Processes: Retrieving Preferences When Some Choices Are Automatic," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(6), pages 1667-1704.
    5. Kovach, Matthew & Suleymanov, Elchin, 2023. "Reference dependence and random attention," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 421-441.
    6. Wang, Kai, 2022. "Approval with frames," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    7. Apesteguia, Jose & Ballester, Miguel A., 2023. "Random utility models with ordered types and domains," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    8. Levon Barseghyan & Francesca Molinari & Matthew Thirkettle, 2021. "Discrete Choice under Risk with Limited Consideration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(6), pages 1972-2006, June.
    9. Kashaev, Nail & Aguiar, Victor H., 2022. "A random attention and utility model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    10. Gualdani, Cristina & Sinha, Shruti, 2024. "Identification in discrete choice models with imperfect information," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(1).
    11. Gibbard, Peter, 2021. "Disentangling preferences and limited attention: Random-utility models with consideration sets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    12. Levon Barseghyan & Maura Coughlin & Francesca Molinari & Joshua C. Teitelbaum, 2021. "Heterogeneous Choice Sets and Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2015-2048, September.
    13. Jose Apesteguia & Miguel A. Ballester & Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza, 2024. "Random Discounted Expected Utility," Working Papers 2024-03, Banco de México.
    14. Geng, Sen & Özbay, Erkut Y., 2021. "Shortlisting procedure with a limited capacity," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    15. Gualdani, Cristina & Sinha, Shruti, 2019. "Identification and inference in discrete choice models with imperfect information," TSE Working Papers 19-1049, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Jun 2020.
    16. Cristina Gualdani & Shruti Sinha, 2019. "Identification in discrete choice models with imperfect information," Papers 1911.04529, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    17. Andreas Hefti & Julia Lareida, 2021. "Competitive attention, Superstars and the Long Tail," ECON - Working Papers 383, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    18. Yaron Azrieli & John Rehbeck, 2022. "Marginal stochastic choice," Papers 2208.08492, arXiv.org.
    19. Eileen Tipoe & Abi Adams & Ian Crawford, 2022. "Revealed preference analysis and bounded rationality [Consume now or later? Time inconsistency, collective choice and revealed preference]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 313-332.
    20. Masatlioglu, Yusufcan & Vu, Tri Phu, 2024. "Growing attention," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    21. Larry G Epstein & Kaushil Patel, 2024. "Identifying Heterogeneous Decision Rules From Choices When Menus Are Unobserved," Papers 2405.09500, arXiv.org.
    22. Wilfried Youmbi, 2024. "Nonparametric Analysis of Random Utility Models Robust to Nontransitive Preferences," Papers 2406.13969, arXiv.org.
    23. Takeshi Fukasawa, 2022. "The Biases in Applying Static Demand Models under Dynamic Demand," Discussion Paper Series DP2022-18, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Jul 2022.
    24. Daniele Caliari & Henrik Petri, 2024. "Irrational Random Utility Models," Papers 2403.10208, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.

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    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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