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Identification in discrete choice models with imperfect information

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  • Cristina Gualdani
  • Shruti Sinha

Abstract

We study identification of preferences in static single-agent discrete choice models where decision makers may be imperfectly informed about the state of the world. We leverage the notion of one-player Bayes Correlated Equilibrium by Bergemann and Morris (2016) to provide a tractable characterization of the sharp identified set. We develop a procedure to practically construct the sharp identified set following a sieve approach, and provide sharp bounds on counterfactual outcomes of interest. We use our methodology and data on the 2017 UK general election to estimate a spatial voting model under weak assumptions on agents' information about the returns to voting. Counterfactual exercises quantify the consequences of imperfect information on the well-being of voters and parties.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristina Gualdani & Shruti Sinha, 2019. "Identification in discrete choice models with imperfect information," Papers 1911.04529, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1911.04529
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Paul S. Koh, 2022. "Stable Outcomes and Information in Games: An Empirical Framework," Papers 2205.04990, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    2. Dirk Bergemann & Benjamin Brooks & Stephen Morris, 2022. "Counterfactuals with Latent Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(1), pages 343-368, January.
    3. Emerson Melo, 2021. "Learning In Random Utility Models Via Online Decision Problems," CAEPR Working Papers 2022-003 Classification-D, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    4. Levon Barseghyan & Francesca Molinari, 2023. "Risk Preference Types, Limited Consideration, and Welfare," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 1011-1029, October.
    5. Emerson Melo, 2021. "Learning in Random Utility Models Via Online Decision Problems," Papers 2112.10993, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    6. Ashesh Rambachan, 2022. "Identifying Prediction Mistakes in Observational Data," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of Artificial Intelligence, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Sukjin Han & Hiroaki Kaido & Lorenzo Magnolfi, 2024. "Testing Information Ordering for Strategic Agents," Papers 2402.19425, arXiv.org.
    8. Paul S. Koh, 2022. "Estimating Dynamic Games with Unknown Information Structure," Papers 2205.03706, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.

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