A Revival of Conservative Ideology and the Projected Religious Landscape in Russia

This paper analyzes the dynamics of the public attitude towards religion using longitudinal data from Russian respondents. Applying Markov chains and regression analysis, we determine the relative success of religious groups in retaining and attracting members. Based on this information, we estimate and explain the projected religious composition of Russia. According to our results, the largest religion has already stabilised at its maximum level, the remaining religions should still grow, while the share of Non‐believers should fall. The projected religious composition comes close to the composition under imperial rule. Coupled with the similarity of the current and imperial conservative ideologies and the regression results for measures of religious membership, this implies that the ongoing religious renaissance results from the state's religious policies which are motivated by a conservative ideology. Regression results suggest that these dynamics are driven by the support of the president in power and an exposure to official TV channels. A rational motivation including an opportunity to improve social status and overcome additions also contributes to religious membership statistics. This implication is in line with the data on the self‐reported importance of religion in various groups. Larger religious groups tend to get more promotion from the state but less serious attitudes from their members, which suggests that entering these groups involves conformist motives.