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Demographics and recent productivity performance: insights from cross‐country comparisons

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  • Paul Beaudry
  • Fabrice Collard
  • David A. Green

Abstract

. Over the last few decades, countries have experienced quite different patterns of productivity growth. In this paper, we emphasize the role of country level demographics in explaining these differences. In particular, looking over the period 1960–2002, we show that cross‐country data support the notion that, starting in the late 1970s, countries went through a period of technological transition that lasted at least until the mid‐1990s for the fastest adjusting countries and is still proceeding for the slower adjusting countries. The main claim of the paper is that the country‐level rate of labour growth was a key factor driving the speed of adjustment to the new technological paradigm, implying that much of the cross‐country difference in economic performance over recent decades can be explained by demographic differences across countries as opposed to the many other factors emphasized in the literature. JEL classification: O33, O41 Démographie et productivité: éclaircissements et conjectures dérivés de comparaisons entre pays. Au cours des quelques dernières décennies, divers pays ont fait l’expérience de patterns différents dans la croissance de la productivité. Dans ce mémoire, les auteurs présentent une interprétation des patterns récents de productivité du travail qui met l’accent sur la démographie du pays comme facteur explicatif de ces différences. En particulier, pour la période 1960–2002, on montre que les données comparatives entre pays supportent l’hypothèse que, à partir de la fin des années 1970, les pays ont vécu une période de transition technologique qui a duré jusqu’au milieu des années 1990 pour les pays qui se sont ajustés le plus vite, et qui est encore en cours pour ceux qui se sont ajustés plus lentement. La proposition principale mise de l’avant dans le mémoire est que la croissance de la main d’oeuvre d’un pays a été un facteur clé dans la définition de la vitesse d’ajustement au nouveau paradigme technologique. Ceci suggère qu’une bonne partie des différences de performance économique entre pays au cours des dernières décennies est attribuable aux différences dans la démographie de ces pays plutôt qu’aux multiples facteurs mentionnés habituellement dans la littérature. Compte tenu du fait que la transition technologique met du temps à s’accomplir (20 à 30 ans), cette perspective suggère que qu’il faut être extrêmement prudent quand on se fonde sur des comparaisons de croissance de productivité entre pays et sur des périodes courtes (de 5 à 10 ans) pour tirer des conclusions quant aux politiques économiques à mettre en place.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Beaudry & Fabrice Collard & David A. Green, 2005. "Demographics and recent productivity performance: insights from cross‐country comparisons," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 309-344, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:canjec:v:38:y:2005:i:2:p:309-344
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0008-4085.2005.00282.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Beaudry & Fabrice Collard, 2003. "Recent Technological and Economic Change among Industrialized Countries: Insights from Population Growth," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 441-464, September.
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    10. Paul Beaudry & David Green, 1998. "What is Driving US and Canadian Wages: Exogenous Technical Change or Endogenous Choice of Technique?," NBER Working Papers 6853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Erika Farnstrand Damsgaard, 2008. "The World Distribution of Productivity: Country TFP Choice in a Nelson-Phelps Economy," 2008 Meeting Papers 176, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Andreea Claudia ȘERBAN & Mirela Ionela ACELEANU, 2015. "Current Demographic Trends – A New Challenge for the Labour Market," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(605), W), pages 309-320, Winter.
    3. Paul Beaudry & David A. Green & Benjamin Sand, 2007. "Spill-Overs from Good Jobs," NBER Working Papers 13006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Gordon, Robert J. & Dew-Becker, Ian, 2008. "The Role of Labour Market Changes in the Slowdown of European Productivity Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 6722, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Brito, Paulo & Dilão, Rui, 2010. "Equilibrium price dynamics in an overlapping-generations exchange economy," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 343-355, May.
    6. Albert van der Horst & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa & Leon Bettendorf, 2009. "Does employment affect productivity?," CPB Discussion Paper 119, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Katerina Koka, 2015. "The Impact of the Population Age Structure on the Response to Negative Asset Shocks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2270-2281.
    8. repec:agr:journl:v:4(605):y:2015:i:4(605):p:309-320 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Jun Liu & Chun Hui & Cynthia Lee & Zhen Xiong Chen, 2013. "Why Do I Feel Valued and Why Do I Contribute? A Relational Approach to Employee's Organization-Based Self-Esteem and Job Performance," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(6), pages 1018-1040, September.
    10. Albert van der Horst & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa & Leon Bettendorf, 2009. "Does employment affect productivity?," CPB Discussion Paper 119.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    11. Alessandro Sarra & Claudio Berardino & Davide Quaglione, 2019. "Deindustrialization and the technological intensity of manufacturing subsystems in the European Union," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 36(1), pages 205-243, April.
    12. Paul Beaudry, 2005. "Innis Lecture: Explorations in medium‐run macroeconomics," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(4), pages 1136-1159, November.
    13. Siobhan Austen (Author A) & Richard Seymour (Author B), 2006. "The Evolution of the Female Labour Force Participation Rate in Australia, 1984-1999," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 9(3), pages 305-320, September.
    14. Paul Beaudry & Fabrice Collard & David A. Green, 2005. "Explaining Productivity Growth: The Role of Demographics," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 10, pages 45-58, Spring.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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