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Weak data nullify bold claims about economic trends in Qing China

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  • Thomas G. Rawski

Abstract

Recent quantitative studies find steep reductions in Chinese per capita real GDP during 1700–1850, challenging long‐standing views of eighteenth‐century prosperity. While evidence surrounding likely consequences of deteriorating food availability remains inconclusive, examination of the grain output series proposed by Broadberry, Guan and Li reveals unrealistically tight error margins as a key driver of their results for the largest component of Qing‐era GDP. Plausible revisions demonstrate that the underlying data easily accommodate stable or rising, as well as falling per capita grain supply, invalidating revisionist conclusions about GDP trends, Qing economic decline and the timing and extent of the Great Divergence.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas G. Rawski, 2025. "Weak data nullify bold claims about economic trends in Qing China," Asia-Pacific Economic History Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(2), pages 273-299, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:apechr:v:65:y:2025:i:2:p:273-299
    DOI: 10.1111/aehr.70010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wolfgang Keller & Carol H. Shiue & Sen Yan, 2024. "Mining Chinese Historical Sources At Scale: A Machine Learning-Approach to Qing State Capacity," NBER Working Papers 32982, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Broadberry, Stephen & Guan, Hanhui & Li, David Daokui, 2018. "China, Europe, and the Great Divergence: A Study in Historical National Accounting, 980–1850," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 78(4), pages 955-1000, December.
    3. Li, Bozhong & van Zanden, Jan Luiten, 2012. "Before the Great Divergence? Comparing the Yangzi Delta and the Netherlands at the Beginning of the Nineteenth Century," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 72(4), pages 956-989, December.
    4. Gu, Yanfeng & Kung, James Kai-sing, 2021. "Malthus Goes to China: The Effect of “Positive Checks” on Grain Market Development, 1736–1910," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(4), pages 1137-1172, December.
    5. Chae, Minhee & Hatton, Timothy J. & Meng, Xin, 2023. "Explaining trends in adult height in China: 1950 to 1990," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Stephen Broadberry & Hanhui Guan & David Daokui Li, 2026. "Economic trends in Qing China: A response to Rawski's bold claims," Asia-Pacific Economic History Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 66(1), pages 99-116, March.

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