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Economic trends in Qing China: A response to Rawski's bold claims

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Listed:
  • Stephen Broadberry
  • Hanhui Guan
  • David Daokui Li

Abstract

Thomas Rawski challenges recent quantitative studies that find declining Chinese GDP per capita during 1700–1850 and suggests that the error margins around the component series for per capita grain supply should be widened, which would make it possible to accommodate stagnation, growth or decline. We show that there are good reasons to reject Rawski's wider error margins. We also reject Rawski's claim that there has previously been a consensus view of eighteenth‐century Qing prosperity and demonstrate that trends in the other variables examined by Rawski tend to support declining per capita grain supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Broadberry & Hanhui Guan & David Daokui Li, 2026. "Economic trends in Qing China: A response to Rawski's bold claims," Asia-Pacific Economic History Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 66(1), pages 99-116, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:apechr:v:66:y:2026:i:1:p:99-116
    DOI: 10.1111/aehr.70019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Broadberry, Stephen & Zhai, Runzuo, 2025. "Innovation and the Great Divergence," CEPR Discussion Papers 20611, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    2. Stephen Broadberry & Kyoji Fukao & Hanhui Guan, 2025. "Regional variation and the Asian little divergence," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _219, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Broadberry, Stephen & Guan, Hanhui & Li, David Daokui, 2018. "China, Europe, and the Great Divergence: A Study in Historical National Accounting, 980–1850," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 78(4), pages 955-1000, December.
    4. Hartwell, Robert, 1966. "Markets, Technology, and the Structure of Enterprise in the Development of the Eleventh-Century Chinese Iron and Steel Industry," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 29-58, March.
    5. Lin, Justin Yifu, 1995. "The Needham Puzzle: Why the Industrial Revolution Did Not Originate in China," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(2), pages 269-292, January.
    6. Baten, Joerg & Ma, Debin & Morgan, Stephen & Wang, Qing, 2010. "Evolution of living standards and human capital in China in the 18-20th centuries: Evidences from real wages, age-heaping, and anthropometrics," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 347-359, July.
    7. Gu, Yanfeng & Kung, James Kai-sing, 2021. "Malthus Goes to China: The Effect of “Positive Checks” on Grain Market Development, 1736–1910," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(4), pages 1137-1172, December.
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