IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wfo/wquart/y2013i1p25-40.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Growth Dynamics Exposed to Conflict Between Easy Monetary Conditions and Fiscal Restriction. Medium-term Forecast for the World Economy Until 2017

Author

Listed:
  • Stephan Schulmeister

Abstract

After a cyclical slowdown in 2012-13, GDP growth in the industrialised economies should pick up to reach an average annual rate of 2.0 percent over the period from 2012 to 2017. In the USA, the growth momentum will be stronger (2.4 percent p.a.) than in the EU (1.4 percent) or Japan (1.5 percent). Growth in the euro area will only attain 1.1 percent per year, as many countries will only gradually rid themselves from the government debt crisis. In the new EU member countries, output growth will be nearly three times as high (3.2 percent per year). China and India will continue to enjoy the fastest pace of growth, at 7.9 percent and 7.7 percent p.a., respectively). In the other developing or emerging economies, GDP is expected to expand by around 4½ percent per year until 2015.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephan Schulmeister, 2013. "Growth Dynamics Exposed to Conflict Between Easy Monetary Conditions and Fiscal Restriction. Medium-term Forecast for the World Economy Until 2017," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 18(1), pages 25-40, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wquart:y:2013:i:1:p:25-40
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/pubid/46694
    File Function: abstract
    Download Restriction: Payment required
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephan Schulmeister, 1995. "Zinssatz, Wachstumsrate und Staatsverschuldung," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 68(3), pages 165-180, March.
    2. Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik & Stefan Schiman, 2013. "Economic Growth to Remain Subdued Over the Years to Come. Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy Until 2017," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 18(1), pages 15-24, April.
    3. Martin Larch & Alessandro Turrini, 2009. "The cyclically-adjusted budget balance in EU fiscal policy making : A love at first sight turned into a mature relationship," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 374, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Torsten Niechoj & Ulrike Stein & Sabine Stephan & Rudolf Zwiener, 2011. "Deutsche Arbeitskosten: Eine Quelle der Instabilität im Euroraum," IMK Report 68-2011, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    5. Stephan Schulmeister, 2012. "Crisis of European Monetary Union Dampens Global Growth Momentum. Medium-term Forecast for the World Economy Until 2016," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 17(1), pages 24-36, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephan Schulmeister, 2014. "Der Fiskalpakt – Hauptkomponente einer Systemkrise," WIFO Working Papers 480, WIFO.
    2. IMK Düsseldorf & OFCE Paris & WIFO Wien, 2013. "Die Krise schwelt weiter," IMK Report 80-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    3. Wenzlaff, Ferdinand & Kimmich, Christian & Richters, Oliver, 2014. "Theoretische Zugänge eines Wachstumszwangs in der Geldwirtschaft," ZÖSS-Discussion Papers 45, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
    4. Melisso Boschi & Stefano d'Addona, 2019. "The Stability of Tax Elasticities over the Business Cycle in European Countries," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 175-210, June.
    5. Kuusi, Tero, 2014. "Consolidation under the Europe’s New Fiscal Rules: Analyzing the Implied Minimum Fiscal Effort," ETLA Working Papers 23, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    6. Holger Bonin & Concepció Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2014. "Cyclically‐Neutral Generational Accounting," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 117-137, June.
    7. European Commission, 2010. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2010 edition," Taxation trends 2010, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    8. Luca Agnello & Jacopo Cimadomo, 2012. "Discretionary Fiscal Policies over the Cycle: New Evidence Based on the ESCB Disaggregated Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(2), pages 43-85, June.
    9. Vladimir Tomsik, 2012. "Some insights into monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the Czech Republic," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 67, pages 161-171, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Nicolas Carnot & Francisco de Castro, 2015. "The Discretionary Fiscal Effort: An Assessment of Fiscal Policy and Its Output Effect," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 215(4), pages 63-94, December.
    11. L. Marattin & S. Meraglia, 2016. "Potential Output and Fiscal Rules in a Monetary Union under Asymmetric Information 2nd ed," Working Papers wp1063, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    12. IMK Düsseldorf & OFCE Paris & WIFO Wien, 2013. "Crisis continues to smoulder," IMK Report 80e-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    13. Fabrizio Coricelli & Riccardo Fiorito, 2013. "Myths and Facts about Fiscal Discretion: A New Measure of Discretionary Expenditure," Working Papers LuissLab 13106, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    14. Orsola Costantini, 2015. "The Cyclically Adjusted Budget: History and Exegesis of a Fateful Estimate," Working Papers Series 24, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    15. Luigi Marattin & Simone Meraglia & Raoul Minetti, 2022. "Sovereign bail‐outs and fiscal rules in a banking union," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(4), pages 1024-1055, October.
    16. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Finland: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/140, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Andersen, Torben M., 2013. "Fiscal policy targeting under imperfect information," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 114-130.
    18. Antonio Fatás, 2019. "Fiscal Policy, Potential Output, and the Shifting Goalposts," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(3), pages 684-702, September.
    19. Korliras, Panagiotis G. & Monogios, Yannis A., 2010. "Asymmetric Fiscal Dynamics and the Significance of Fiscal Rules for EMU Public Finances," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 139-169.
    20. Virkola, Tuomo, 2014. "Real-Time Measures of the Output Gap and Fiscal Policy Stance," ETLA Reports 37, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:wquart:y:2013:i:1:p:25-40. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Florian Mayr (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wifooat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.