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Neue Energieszenarien 2050 für Österreich

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Sommer

    (WIFO)

  • Ina Meyer
  • Kurt Kratena

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Die vorliegende Studie entwickelt und analysiert neue Energieszenarien für Österreich bis zum Jahr 2050 unter Berücksichtigung der internationalen Klimapolitik nach der UNO-Klimakonferenz in Paris 2015 ("COP21"). Nach UNFCCC-Definition werden ein WEM-Szenario ("with existing measures", mit Maßnahmen bis Mai 2016) und ein WAM-plus-Szenario ("with additional measures", mit zusätzlichen Maßnahmen) modelliert. In den Szenarien werden Auswirkungen von unterschiedlichen klima- und energiepolitischen Maßnahmenbündeln auf Energieverbrauch und Wertschöpfung analysiert. Das WAM-plus-Szenario quantifiziert die Auswirkungen zusätzlicher, ambitionierter ("plus") Maßnahmen zur Steigerung der Energieeffizienz, des Einsatzes erneuerbarer Energieträger und des technologischen Wandels, die den langfristigen Zielen der UNO-Klimakonferenz in Paris zur Verringerung der Treibhausgasemissionen entsprechen. Neben Innovationen und Kostenverbesserungen in den Bereichen Energieeffizienz und erneuerbare Energie werden Verhaltens- und Lebensstiländerungen energierelevanter Nachfragemuster und gezielte Infrastrukturinvestitionen abgebildet. Das WAM-plus-Szenario ist ein weltweites Klimaschutzszenario, das ein weltweites Engagement zur Erreichung der Ziele des Pariser Klimaabkommens widerspiegelt. Die Szenarien werden durch Koppelung mehrerer technologieorientierter sektoraler Bottom-up-Modelle der Projektpartner (Österreichische Energieagentur, TU Wien, TU Graz, Umweltbundesamt) mit dem Top-down-Modell WIFO.DYNK (dynamisches neu-keynesianisches Modell) modelliert. Das WEM-Szenario ergibt eine leichte absolute Entkoppelung von Wirtschaftsleistung und Energieverbrauch bei einem durchschnittlichen jährlichen realen BIP-Wachstum von 1,5%. Ambitionierter Klimaschutz bewirkt im WAM-plus-Szenario ein durchschnittliches jährliches BIP-Wachstum von 1,7% (zu konstanten Preisen) bei einem deutlichen Rückgang der Energienachfrage in den wichtigsten Sektoren.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Sommer & Ina Meyer & Kurt Kratena, 2018. "Neue Energieszenarien 2050 für Österreich," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 91(5), pages 375-385, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2018:i:5:p:375-385
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kurt Kratena & Mark Sommer, 2014. "Model Simulations of Resource Use Scenarios for Europe. WWWforEurope Deliverable No. 5," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47503.
    2. Kurt Kratena & Ina Meyer & Mark Sommer, 2013. "Long-term Climate Mitigation and Energy Use in Austria – The WAM+ Scenario," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46981.
    3. Sommer, Mark & Kratena, Kurt, 2017. "The Carbon Footprint of European Households and Income Distribution," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 62-72.
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