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Verhaltenes Wirtschaftswachstum, hohe Arbeitslosigkeit und Budgetkonsolidierung prägen Wirtschaftsentwicklung. Mittelfristige Prognose der österreichischen Wirtschaft bis 2018

Author

Listed:
  • Josef Baumgartner
  • Serguei Kaniovski
  • Markus Leibrecht

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Nach der Wachstumsdelle von Ende 2012 bis Mitte 2013 entwickelt sich die heimische Wirtschaft mittelfristig mäßig dynamisch (2014/2018 +1,8% p. a.). Insbesondere wächst der Konsum verhalten, da die Sparneigung der privaten Haushalte weiter zunimmt. Die leichte Expansion ermöglicht zwar eine Ausweitung der Beschäftigung (2014/2018 +0,8% p. a.), diese wird aber nicht ausreichen, um die Arbeitslosigkeit deutlich zu senken, da das in- und ausländische Arbeitskräfteangebot ähnlich stark zunimmt. Die Arbeitslosenquote dürfte nach einem Höchstwert von 7,9% (gemäß AMS-Definition) im Jahr 2015 bis zum Ende des Prognose¬horizonts nur leicht auf 7,7% zurückgehen. Der Inflationsdruck bleibt mittelfristig gering, die Inflationsrate wird durchschnittlich 1,9% betragen. Ein ausgeglichener Staatshaushalt (sowohl strukturell als auch nach Maastricht-Definition) wird durch das in der Prognose unterstellte strukturelle Konsolidierungsszenario (2 Mrd. € ab 2014, zusätzlich 1 Mrd. € ab 2015) nicht erreicht.

Suggested Citation

  • Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Markus Leibrecht, 2014. "Verhaltenes Wirtschaftswachstum, hohe Arbeitslosigkeit und Budgetkonsolidierung prägen Wirtschaftsentwicklung. Mittelfristige Prognose der österreichischen Wirtschaft bis 2018," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 87(2), pages 117-131, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2014:i:2:p:117-131
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    References listed on IDEAS

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