IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/ecoreg/v16y2023i1p34-50n8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparative Analysis of Methods for Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting in the Absence of Data – A Case Study

Author

Listed:
  • Zawadzki Jan

    (1 Faculty of Economics, Department of Applications of Mathematics in Economics Professor emeritus, West Pomeranian University of Technology in Szczecin, Poland)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the number of gaps in data, the analytical form, and the model type selection criterion on the accuracy of interpolation and extrapolation forecasts for hourly data.

Suggested Citation

  • Zawadzki Jan, 2023. "Comparative Analysis of Methods for Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting in the Absence of Data – A Case Study," Economic and Regional Studies / Studia Ekonomiczne i Regionalne, Sciendo, vol. 16(1), pages 34-50, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:vrs:ecoreg:v:16:y:2023:i:1:p:34-50:n:8
    DOI: 10.2478/ers-2023-0003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2478/ers-2023-0003
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2478/ers-2023-0003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dordonnat, V. & Koopman, S.J. & Ooms, M. & Dessertaine, A. & Collet, J., 2008. "An hourly periodic state space model for modelling French national electricity load," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 566-587.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vaz, Lucélia Viviane & Filho, Getulio Borges da Silveira, 2017. "Functional Autoregressive Models: An Application to Brazilian Hourly Electricity Load," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 37(2), November.
    2. Dilaver, Zafer & Hunt, Lester C., 2011. "Turkish aggregate electricity demand: An outlook to 2020," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6686-6696.
    3. Faheem Jan & Ismail Shah & Sajid Ali, 2022. "Short-Term Electricity Prices Forecasting Using Functional Time Series Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-15, May.
    4. Verstraete, Gylian & Aghezzaf, El-Houssaine & Desmet, Bram, 2019. "A data-driven framework for predicting weather impact on high-volume low-margin retail products," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 169-177.
    5. Fondeur, Y. & Karamé, F., 2013. "Can Google data help predict French youth unemployment?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 117-125.
    6. Zawadzki, Jan, 2023. "Comparative Analysis Of Methods For Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting In The Absence Of Data – A Case Study," Economic and Regional Studies (Studia Ekonomiczne i Regionalne), John Paul II University of Applied Sciences in Biala Podlaska, vol. 16(1), March.
    7. Ohtsuka, Yoshihiro & Oga, Takashi & Kakamu, Kazuhiko, 2010. "Forecasting electricity demand in Japan: A Bayesian spatial autoregressive ARMA approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2721-2735, November.
    8. Zhineng Hu & Jing Ma & Liangwei Yang & Liming Yao & Meng Pang, 2019. "Monthly electricity demand forecasting using empirical mode decomposition-based state space model," Energy & Environment, , vol. 30(7), pages 1236-1254, November.
    9. Brabec, Marek & Konár, Ondrej & Pelikán, Emil & Malý, Marek, 2008. "A nonlinear mixed effects model for the prediction of natural gas consumption by individual customers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 659-678.
    10. Mestekemper, Thomas & Kauermann, Göran & Smith, Michael S., 2013. "A comparison of periodic autoregressive and dynamic factor models in intraday energy demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-12.
    11. F. M. Andersen & H. V. Larsen & L. Kitzing & P. E. Morthorst, 2014. "Who gains from hourly time‐of‐use retail prices on electricity? An analysis of consumption profiles for categories of Danish electricity customers," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(6), pages 582-593, November.
    12. Alfredo Nespoli & Emanuele Ogliari & Silvia Pretto & Michele Gavazzeni & Sonia Vigani & Franco Paccanelli, 2021. "Electrical Load Forecast by Means of LSTM: The Impact of Data Quality," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-11, February.
    13. Tawil, Tony El & Charpentier, Jean Frédéric & Benbouzid, Mohamed, 2018. "Sizing and rough optimization of a hybrid renewable-based farm in a stand-alone marine context," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 1134-1143.
    14. Dordonnat, Virginie & Koopman, Siem Jan & Ooms, Marius, 2012. "Dynamic factors in periodic time-varying regressions with an application to hourly electricity load modelling," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3134-3152.
    15. Komi Nagbe & Jairo Cugliari & Julien Jacques, 2018. "Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting Using a Functional State Space Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-24, May.
    16. Dilaver, Zafer & Hunt, Lester C., 2011. "Industrial electricity demand for Turkey: A structural time series analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 426-436, May.
    17. Wang, Yaoping & Bielicki, Jeffrey M., 2018. "Acclimation and the response of hourly electricity loads to meteorological variables," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 473-485.
    18. Shao, Zhen & Chao, Fu & Yang, Shan-Lin & Zhou, Kai-Le, 2017. "A review of the decomposition methodology for extracting and identifying the fluctuation characteristics in electricity demand forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 123-136.
    19. Cho, Haeran & Goude, Yannig & Brossat, Xavier & Yao, Qiwei, 2013. "Modeling and forecasting daily electricity load curves: a hybrid approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 49634, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Goia, Aldo & May, Caterina & Fusai, Gianluca, 2010. "Functional clustering and linear regression for peak load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 700-711, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasting; missing data; time series; high frequency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:ecoreg:v:16:y:2023:i:1:p:34-50:n:8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.