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How Late Can First Births Be Postponed? Some Illustrative Population-level Calculations

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  • Joshua R. Goldstein

Abstract

I shift, stretch, and transform the observed cohort age-schedule of first birth for Danish women born in 1963 to see how late the mean age at first birth could plausibly shift. Constraints of two kinds are placed on the ultimate distribution of first births. First, no more than one-third of first births can occur after age 35. This constraint allows postponement without radical changes in childlessness or parity distribution. Second, I preserve some variability in the age at first birth by keeping the standard deviation of first birth above 4 years, the minimum value observed for Denmark during the baby boom years. Under these constraints, I find that mean ages at first birth of at least 33 years are plausible. This would represent a further increase of about 4 years in the mean age at first birth seen in recent periods. I conclude that the depressed levels of fertility seen due to postponement could continue for decades before limits are reached.

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  • Joshua R. Goldstein, 2006. "How Late Can First Births Be Postponed? Some Illustrative Population-level Calculations," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 153-165.
    • Handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:4:y:2006:i:1:p:153-165
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    1. Hans‐Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "The Emergence of Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(4), pages 641-680, December.
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    1. Joshua R. Goldstein & Tomáš Sobotka & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2009. "The End of “Lowest‐Low” Fertility?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(4), pages 663-699, December.
    2. Natalie Nitsche & Hannah Brückner, 2021. "Late, But Not Too Late? Postponement of First Birth Among Highly Educated US Women," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(2), pages 371-403, April.
    3. Erich Striessnig & Alessandra Trimarchi, 2023. "How much time is left? International trends in parenthood expectancy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(16), pages 421-438.
    4. Aart C. Liefbroer & Dimiter Philipov & Francesco C. Billari, 2006. "The Postponement of Childbearing in Europe: Driving Forces and Implications," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17.
    5. Joshua R. Goldstein & Tomáš Sobotka & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2009. "The end of 'lowest-low' fertility? (with supplementary materials)," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-029, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. Marion Burkimsher, 2015. "Europe-wide fertility trends since the 1990s: Turning the corner from declining first birth rates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(21), pages 621-656.

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