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The demography of human development and climate change vulnerability: A projection exercise

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  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma
  • Wolfgang Lutz

Abstract

We propose a methodological framework aimed at obtaining projections of the Human Development Index (HDI) that can be used to assess the degree of vulnerability of future societies to extreme climatic events. By combining recent developments in the modeling and projection of population by age, sex, and educational attainment, our modeling set-up ensures that the different components of the HDI are projected using a self-contained, consistent modeling effort. We develop scenarios that correspond to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed in the context of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and thus present a projection framework that can be used to expand the evaluation of the potential mitigation and adaptation challenges associated with climate change in general, and with vulnerability to natural disasters in particular.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang Lutz, 2015. "The demography of human development and climate change vulnerability: A projection exercise," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 13(1), pages 241-262.
    • Handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:13:y:2015:i:1:p:241-262
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lutz, Wolfgang & Butz, William P. & KC, Samir (ed.), 2014. "World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198703167.
    2. Satya R. Chakravarty, 2003. "A Generalized Human Development Index," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 99-114, February.
    3. Jeni Klugman & Francisco Rodríguez & Hyung-Jin Choi, 2011. "The HDI 2010: new controversies, old critiques," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 9(2), pages 249-288, June.
    4. Ravallion, Martin, 2012. "Troubling tradeoffs in the Human Development Index," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 201-209.
    5. Satya Chakravarty, 2011. "A reconsideration of the tradeoffs in the new human development index," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 9(3), pages 471-474, September.
    6. Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 1994. "The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 143-173, October.
    7. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Tapas Mishra, 2011. "The role of age‐structured education data for economic growth forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 249-267, March.
    8. Neil Adger, W., 1999. "Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and Extremes in Coastal Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 249-269, February.
    9. Martin Ravallion, 2011. "The human development index: a response to Klugman, Rodriguez and Choi," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 9(3), pages 475-478, September.
    10. Torri, Tiziana & Vaupel, James W., 2012. "Forecasting life expectancy in an international context," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 519-531.
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    Cited by:

    1. Samuel Sellers, 2020. "Cause of death variation under the shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 559-577, November.

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