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The role of age‐structured education data for economic growth forecasts


  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma
  • Tapas Mishra


This paper utilizes for the first time age-structured human capital data for economic growth forecasting. We concentrate on pooled cross‐country data of 65 countries over six 5‐year periods (1970–2000) and consider specifications chosen by model selection criteria, Bayesian model averaging methodologies based on in‐sample and out‐of‐sample goodness of fit and on adaptive regression by mixing. The results indicate that forecast averaging and exploiting the demographic dimension of education data improve economic growth forecasts systematically. In particular, the results are very promising for improving economic growth predictions in developing countries. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Tapas Mishra, 2011. "The role of age‐structured education data for economic growth forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 249-267, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:30:y:2011:i:2:p:249-267

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    1. Nieto, Fabio H. & Guerrero, Victor M., 1995. "Kalman filter for singular and conditional state-space models when the system state and the observational error are correlated," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 303-310, March.
    2. Víctor Guerrero & Fabio Nieto, 1999. "Temporal and contemporaneous disaggregation of multiple economic time series," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 8(2), pages 459-489, December.
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    6. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
    7. F. Javier Fernandez Macho & Andrew C. Harvey & James H. Stock, 1987. "Forecasting and Interpolation Using Vector Autoregressions with Common Trends," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 6-7, pages 279-287.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang Lutz & Warren Sanderson, 2014. "Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 299-315, February.
    2. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Samir K.C. & Petra Sauer, 2013. "Age-Specific Education Inequality, Education Mobility and Income Growth," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 6, WWWforEurope.
    3. Claude Diebolt & Tapas Mishra & Bazoumana Ouattara & Mamata Parhi, 2010. "Does democratic distance matter for cross-country growth interdependence?," Working Papers 10-12, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    4. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Peter Huber & Doris A. Oberdabernig & Anna Raggl, 2015. "Migration in an ageing Europe: What are the challenges?," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 79, WWWforEurope.
    5. Tapas Mishra & Mamata Parhi & Raúl Fuentes, 2015. "How Interdependent are Cross-Country Happiness Dynamics?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 122(2), pages 491-518, June.


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