What Can Ex-Participants Reveal about a Program’s Impact?
We propose a method for estimating the mean impact of an assigned social program when it is not feasible to do a pre-intervention baseline survey but it is feasible to track ex-participants. In our triple-difference estimator, measured outcome changes are compared between continuing participants and matched ex-participants, after netting out the outcome changes for a matched comparison group who never participated. With sufficient followup observations one can test the joint conditions required for correctly identifying the gains to current participants. We apply the method to a workfare program in Argentina. Significant impacts on participants’ current incomes are revealed.
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- Ashenfelter, Orley C, 1978. "Estimating the Effect of Training Programs on Earnings," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(1), pages 47-57, February.
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- Heckman, James J & Smith, Jeffrey A, 1999. "The Pre-programme Earnings Dip and the Determinants of Participation in a Social Programme. Implications for Simple Programme Evaluation Strategies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 313-348, July.
- James J. Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Petra E. Todd, 1997. "Matching As An Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(4), pages 605-654. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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