IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/usg/auswrt/201869011-40.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do Swiss foreign assets hedge the business cycle?

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Stoffels
  • Cédric Tille

Abstract

While Switzerland's net creditor position is sizable, it has long remained steady despite large and persistent current account surpluses. This pattern reflects valuation losses on Swiss foreign assets driven by movements in exchange rates and assets prices. We compute estimates of these valuation effects and the associated rates of returns on Swiss external assets and liabilities. While Switzerland benefits from a modest advantage in terms of yields (interest and dividends in percent of holdings), we show that this has been dwarfed by valuation losses driven by the strengthening of the Swiss franc, even before the crisis. We then assess the extent to which the return on assets and liabilities (including capital gains) provides a hedge against movements in Swiss GDP and the purchasing power of income. While we find little evidence of such a hedge at a quarterly frequency, financial returns provide some offset for business cycle movements at the horizon of a year. This hedging property has strengthened since 2010 and is more pronounced for privately held assets and liabilities than for the fast-growing holdings of reserves by the Swiss National Bank.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Stoffels & Cédric Tille, 2018. "Do Swiss foreign assets hedge the business cycle?," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 69(01), pages 1-40, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:usg:auswrt:2018:69:01:1-40
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ux-tauri.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/auswrt/AW_69-01__01_Stoffels-Tille.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raphael A. Auer & Cedric Tille, 2016. "The banking sector and the Swiss financial account during the financial and European debt crises:," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 67(02), pages 69-97, August.
    2. Curcuru, Stephanie E. & Thomas, Charles P. & Warnock, Francis E., 2013. "On returns differentials," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-25.
    3. Bénétrix, Agustin S. & Lane, Philip R. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2015. "International currency exposures, valuation effects and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 98-109.
    4. Pınar Yeşin, 2015. "Capital Flow Waves to and from Switzerland before and after the Financial Crisis," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 151(I), pages 27-75, March.
    5. Agustín S. Bénétrix & Philip R. Lane, "undated". "Cross-Country Exposures to the Swiss Franc," Trinity Economics Papers tep0116, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    6. Kugler, Peter & Weder di Mauro, Beatrice, 2005. "Why Are Returns on Swiss Franc Assets So Low? Rare Events May Solve the Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 5181, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Lorenz Emter & Martin Schmitz & Marcel Tirpák, 2019. "Cross-border banking in the EU since the crisis: What is driving the great retrenchment?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(2), pages 287-326, May.
    8. Fischer, Andreas M. & Groeger, Henrike & Sauré, Philip & Yeşin, Pınar, 2019. "Current account adjustment and retained earnings," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 246-259.
    9. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2013. "External Adjustment, Global Imbalances and Valuation Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 9566, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Cedric Tille, 2003. "The impact of exchange rate movements on U.S. foreign debt," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Jan).
    11. Thomas Nitschka, 2014. "Have investors been looking for exposure to specific countries since the global financial crisis? - Insights from the Swiss franc bond market," Working Papers 2014-13, Swiss National Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Benedetta Bianchi & Giovanna Bua, 2020. "Foreign exchange derivatives and currency mismatch in Irish investment funds," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Bridging measurement challenges and analytical needs of external statistics: evolution or revolution?, volume 52, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2019. "The Natural Level of Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 26184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Agustín S. Bénétrix & Philip R. Lane, "undated". "Cross-Country Exposures to the Swiss Franc," Trinity Economics Papers tep0116, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    2. Agustín S. Bénétrix & Philip R. Lane, "undated". "Cross-Country Exposures to the Swiss Franc," Trinity Economics Papers tep0116, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    3. McCauley, Robert N., 2015. "Does the US dollar confer an exorbitant privilege?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-14.
    4. Bénétrix, Agustin S. & Lane, Philip R. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2015. "International currency exposures, valuation effects and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 98-109.
    5. Kristin Forbes & Ida Hjortsoe & Tsvetelina Nenova, 2017. "Current Account Deficits During Heightened Risk: Menacing or Mitigating?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(601), pages 571-623, May.
    6. Galstyan, Vahagn & Mehigan, Caroline & Mercado, Rogelio, 2020. "The currency composition of international portfolio assets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    7. Gustavo Adler & Signe Krogstrup & Mr. Daniel Garcia-Macia, 2019. "The Measurement of External Accounts," IMF Working Papers 2019/132, International Monetary Fund.
    8. van Hombeeck, Carlos Eduardo, 2020. "An exorbitant privilege in the first age of international financial integration?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    9. Turrini, Alessandro & Zeugner, Stefan, 2019. "Benchmarks for net international investment positions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 149-164.
    10. Herkenhoff, Philipp & Sauré, Philip, 2021. "How expected inflation distorts the current account and the valuation effect," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    11. Michael D. Bordo & Robert N. McCauley, 2016. "The Current Account Version of the Triffin Dilemma," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 44(2), pages 171-182, June.
    12. Ito, Hiro & McCauley, Robert N., 2019. "A key currency view of global imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 97-115.
    13. Tille, Cédric, 2017. "The changing international linkages of Switzerland: An overview," Kiel Working Papers 2088, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    14. McCauley, Robert N. & Bénétrix, Agustín S. & McGuire, Patrick M. & von Peter, Goetz, 2019. "Financial deglobalisation in banking?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 116-131.
    15. Gustavo Adler & Mr. Daniel Garcia-Macia, 2018. "The Stabilizing Role of Net Foreign Asset Returns," IMF Working Papers 2018/079, International Monetary Fund.
    16. E Curcuru & Charles P Thomas & Francis E Warnock, 2015. "Cross-border portfolios: assets, liabilities, and non-flow adjustments," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Cross-border Financial Linkages: Challenges for Monetary Policy and Financial Stability, volume 82, pages 7-24, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Le, Dieu Thanh & Park, Hail, 2020. "Valuation effects of capital inflows: Evidence from emerging market economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    18. Raphael A. Auer & Cedric Tille, 2016. "The banking sector and the Swiss financial account during the financial and European debt crises:," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 67(02), pages 69-97, August.
    19. Philip Sauré & Philipp Herkenhoff, 2020. "How Expected Inflation Distorts the Current Account and the Valuation Effect," Working Papers 2022, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 10 Nov 2020.
    20. Daisuke Ikeda & Toan Phan & Timothy Sablik, 2020. "Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 20, pages 1-4, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    valuation effects; international risk sharing;

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:usg:auswrt:2018:69:01:1-40. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/siasrch.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stefan Legge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/siasrch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.