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Does More Crime Mean More Prisoners? An Instrumental Variables Approach

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  • Listokin, Yair

Abstract

This paper studies the "mechanical theory" of crime and incarceration--the notion that changes in imprisonment are partially determined by changes in crime rates. Previous studies found scant evidence supporting the mechanical theory. These studies, however, failed to properly control for simultaneity between incarceration rates and crime rates. While more crime may lead to larger prison populations, rising incarceration rates may deter crime. To address this bias, abortion rates in the 1970s are used as an instrument for crime in later decades. Abortion rates in the 1970s are correlated with crime in the 1990s but are unlikely to be otherwise related to incarceration or prison admissions rates in the 1990s. The instrumental variables approach finds that the estimated elasticity of prison admissions with respect to crime is approximately 1, in accord with the mechanical theory. This finding has important implications for understanding trends in the U.S. prison population.

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  • Listokin, Yair, 2003. "Does More Crime Mean More Prisoners? An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(1), pages 181-206, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlawec:y:2003:v:46:i:1:p:181-206
    DOI: 10.1086/343779
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John J. Donohue III & Steven D. Levitt, 2001. "The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(2), pages 379-420.
    2. Steven D. Levitt, 1996. "The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Litigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 319-351.
    3. Levitt, Steven D, 1997. "Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 270-290, June.
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    5. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    6. Ted Joyce, 2001. "Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime?," NBER Working Papers 8319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. John J Donohue & Steven Levitt, 2020. "The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime over the Last Two Decades," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 22(2), pages 241-302.
    2. Angela Zorro Medina & Camilo Acosta & Daniel Mejía, 2020. "The Unintended Consequences of the U.S. Adversarial Model in Latin American Crime," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 18406, Universidad EAFIT.

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