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The Effect of Leaded Aviation Gasoline on Blood Lead in Children

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Listed:
  • Sammy Zahran
  • Terrence Iverson
  • Shawn P. McElmurry
  • Stephan Weiler

Abstract

Lead is a neurotoxin with developmentally harmful effects in children. In the United States, over half the current flow of lead into the atmosphere is attributable to lead-formulated aviation gasoline (avgas), used in a large fraction of piston-engine aircraft. Various public interest firms have petitioned the EPA to find endangerment from and regulate lead emitted by piston-engine aircraft, though the EPA has so far ruled against such petitions. To address an EPA request for more evidence, we construct a novel data set that links time and spatially referenced blood lead data from over a million children to 448 nearby airports in Michigan. Across a series of tests, and adjusting for other known sources of lead exposure, we find that child blood lead levels (1) increase dose-responsively in proximity to airports, (2) decline measurably among children sampled in the months after 9/11, (3) increase dose-responsively in the flow of piston-engine aircraft traffic, (4) increase in the percentage of prevailing wind days drifting in the direction of a child’s residential location, and (5) behave intuitively and significantly when considering two-way and three-way interactions of our main treatment variables. To quantify the policy relevance of the results we provide a conservative estimate of the social damages attributable to avgas consumption. Damages are at least $10 per gallon, which can be compared to a pump price of about $6 per gallon.

Suggested Citation

  • Sammy Zahran & Terrence Iverson & Shawn P. McElmurry & Stephan Weiler, 2017. "The Effect of Leaded Aviation Gasoline on Blood Lead in Children," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(2), pages 575-610.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jaerec:doi:10.1086/691686
    DOI: 10.1086/691686
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    3. Chen, Lihong & Ren, Jingzheng, 2018. "Multi-attribute sustainability evaluation of alternative aviation fuels based on fuzzy ANP and fuzzy grey relational analysis," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 176-186.
    4. Clay, Karen & Portnykh, Margarita & Severnini, Edson, 2019. "The legacy lead deposition in soils and its impact on cognitive function in preschool-aged children in the United States," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 181-192.
    5. Higney, Anthony & Hanley, Nick & Moro, Mirko, 2022. "The lead-crime hypothesis: A meta-analysis," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    6. Alex Hollingsworth & Ivan Rudik, 2021. "The Effect of Leaded Gasoline on Elderly Mortality: Evidence from Regulatory Exemptions," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 345-373, August.
    7. Zahran, Sammy & Iverson, Terrence & McElmurry, Shawn P. & Weiler, Stephan & Levitt, Ryan, 2019. "Hidden Costs of Blight and Arson in Detroit: Evidence From a Natural Experiment in Devil's Night," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 266-277.
    8. Burkhardt, Jesse & Bayham, Jude & Wilson, Ander & Carter, Ellison & Berman, Jesse D. & O'Dell, Katelyn & Ford, Bonne & Fischer, Emily V. & Pierce, Jeffrey R., 2019. "The effect of pollution on crime: Evidence from data on particulate matter and ozone," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    9. Klemick, Heather & Mason, Henry & Sullivan, Karen, 2020. "Superfund cleanups and children’s lead exposure," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling

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