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The Effect of Leaded Aviation Gasoline on Blood Lead in Children

Author

Listed:
  • Sammy Zahran
  • Terrence Iverson
  • Shawn P. McElmurry
  • Stephan Weiler

Abstract

Lead is a neurotoxin with developmentally harmful effects in children. In the United States, over half the current flow of lead into the atmosphere is attributable to lead-formulated aviation gasoline (avgas), used in a large fraction of piston-engine aircraft. Various public interest firms have petitioned the EPA to find endangerment from and regulate lead emitted by piston-engine aircraft, though the EPA has so far ruled against such petitions. To address an EPA request for more evidence, we construct a novel data set that links time and spatially referenced blood lead data from over a million children to 448 nearby airports in Michigan. Across a series of tests, and adjusting for other known sources of lead exposure, we find that child blood lead levels (1) increase dose-responsively in proximity to airports, (2) decline measurably among children sampled in the months after 9/11, (3) increase dose-responsively in the flow of piston-engine aircraft traffic, (4) increase in the percentage of prevailing wind days drifting in the direction of a child’s residential location, and (5) behave intuitively and significantly when considering two-way and three-way interactions of our main treatment variables. To quantify the policy relevance of the results we provide a conservative estimate of the social damages attributable to avgas consumption. Damages are at least $10 per gallon, which can be compared to a pump price of about $6 per gallon.

Suggested Citation

  • Sammy Zahran & Terrence Iverson & Shawn P. McElmurry & Stephan Weiler, 2017. "The Effect of Leaded Aviation Gasoline on Blood Lead in Children," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(2), pages 575-610.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jaerec:doi:10.1086/691686
    DOI: 10.1086/691686
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    Cited by:

    1. Hausman, Catherine & Stolper, Samuel, 2021. "Inequality, information failures, and air pollution," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    2. repec:osf:socarx:rdy6g_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Gazze, Ludovica & Heissel, Jennifer, 2021. "Infrastructure upgrades and lead exposure: Do cities face trade-offs when replacing water mains?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    4. Chen, Lihong & Ren, Jingzheng, 2018. "Multi-attribute sustainability evaluation of alternative aviation fuels based on fuzzy ANP and fuzzy grey relational analysis," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 176-186.
    5. Heather Klemick & Dennis Guignet & Linda T. Bui & Ron Shadbegian & Cameron Milani, 2022. "Cardiovascular Mortality and Leaded Aviation Fuel: Evidence from Piston-Engine Air Traffic in North Carolina," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-26, May.
    6. Higney, Anthony & Hanley, Nick & Moro, Mirko, 2022. "The lead-crime hypothesis: A meta-analysis," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    7. Klemick, Heather & Mason, Henry & Sullivan, Karen, 2020. "Superfund cleanups and children’s lead exposure," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    8. Heyes, Anthony & Zhu, Mingying, 2019. "Air pollution as a cause of sleeplessness: Social media evidence from a panel of Chinese cities," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    9. Clay, Karen & Portnykh, Margarita & Severnini, Edson, 2019. "The legacy lead deposition in soils and its impact on cognitive function in preschool-aged children in the United States," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 181-192.
    10. Alex Hollingsworth & Ivan Rudik, 2021. "The Effect of Leaded Gasoline on Elderly Mortality: Evidence from Regulatory Exemptions," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 345-373, August.
    11. Linh Pham & Travis Roach, 2024. "Spillover benefits of carbon dioxide cap and trade: Evidence from the Toxics Release Inventory," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 449-467, January.
    12. Zahran, Sammy & Iverson, Terrence & McElmurry, Shawn P. & Weiler, Stephan & Levitt, Ryan, 2019. "Hidden Costs of Blight and Arson in Detroit: Evidence From a Natural Experiment in Devil's Night," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 266-277.
    13. Burkhardt, Jesse & Bayham, Jude & Wilson, Ander & Carter, Ellison & Berman, Jesse D. & O'Dell, Katelyn & Ford, Bonne & Fischer, Emily V. & Pierce, Jeffrey R., 2019. "The effect of pollution on crime: Evidence from data on particulate matter and ozone," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    14. Zehao Lin & Ying Liu & Congrong Pan & Lutz Sager, 2025. "Can Air Pollution Affect Our Sentiments: Social Media Evidence from Japan," CESifo Working Paper Series 12030, CESifo.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling

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