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Transition Models in a Non-stationary Environment

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  • Imbens, G W

Abstract

An alternative form of the proportional hazard model is proposed. It allows one to introduce correlation between exit rates at the same (calendar) time for different individuals. One can, in the context of this model, still allow for, and estimate, duration effects. These should be parametrized. These modifications to the original Cox model are possible by reversing the roles of duration and calendar time. It is argued that flexibility with respect to the effects of these macro processes is of particular relevance in economic models. An example using Dutch data on labor market transitions illustrates the idea that to ignore calendar time effects may have severe consequences for the estimation of duration dependence. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Imbens, G W, 1994. "Transition Models in a Non-stationary Environment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 703-720, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:76:y:1994:i:4:p:703-20
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    Cited by:

    1. van Ommeren, Jos & Rietveld, Piet & Nijkamp, Peter, 2002. "A bivariate duration model for job mobility of two-earner households," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 574-587, March.
    2. Charles W. Calomiris & Joseph R. Mason, 2000. "Causes of U.S. Bank Distress During the Depression," NBER Working Papers 7919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. van den Berg, Gerard J. & van der Klaauw, Bas, 2001. "Combining micro and macro unemployment duration data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 271-309, June.
    4. Guido Imbens & Lisa Lynch, 2006. "Re-employment probabilities over the business cycle," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 5(2), pages 111-134, August.
    5. Bernhard Boockmann & Jan Fries & Christian Göbel, 2012. "Specific Measures for Older Employees and Late Career Employment," IAW Discussion Papers 89, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW).
    6. Brigitte Dormont & Denis Fougère & Ana Prieto, 2001. "L'effet de l'allocation unique dégressive sur la reprise d'emploi," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 343(1), pages 3-28.
    7. Hesselius, Patrik, 2007. "Does sickness absence increase the risk of unemployment?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 288-310, April.
    8. Dohmen, Thomas J. & Pfann, Gerard A., 2004. "Worker separations in a nonstationary corporate environment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 645-663, June.
    9. Hesselius, Patrik, 2003. "Does Sick Absence Increase the Risk of Unemployment?," Working Paper Series 2003:15, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    10. Kalwij, Adriaan, 2001. "Individuals' Unemployment Experiences: Heterogeneity and Business Cycle Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 370, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    11. Mark Yuying An & Ming Liu, 2000. "Using Indirect Inference To Solve The Initial-Conditions Problem," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 656-667, November.
    12. Gordon Wilkinson, 1997. "A Micro Approach to the Issue of Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from the 1988­1990 Labour Market Activity Survey," Staff Working Papers 97-12, Bank of Canada.
    13. Kalwij, Adriaan, 2001. "Individuals' Unemployment Durations over the Business Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 369, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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