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Short-Term Stock Price Reversals May Be Reversed

  • Andrey Kudryavtsev

    ()

    (Economics and Management Department, The Max Stern Yezreel Valley Academic College, Emek Yezreel 19300, Israel)

In present study, I explore intraday behavior of stock prices. In particular, I try to shed light on the dynamics of stock price reversals and namely, on the short-term character the latter may possess. For each of the stocks currently making up the Dow Jones Industrial Index, I calculate intraday upside and downside volatility measures, following Becker et al. (2008) and Klossner et al. (2012), as a proxy for reversed overreactions to good and bad news, respectively. I document that for all the stocks in the sample, mean daily returns following the days when a stock's upside volatility measure was higher or equal to its downside volatility measure are higher than following the days when the opposite relationship held, indicating that stock prices display a short-run 'reversals of reversals' behavior following corrected, or reversed, overreactions to news. Furthermore, I construct seven different portfolios built upon the idea of daily adjusting a long position in the stocks that according to 'reversals of reversals' behavior are expected to yield high daily returns, and a short position in the stocks, whose daily returns are expected to be low. All the portfolios yield significantly positive returns, providing an evidence for the practical applicability of the 'reversals of reversals' pattern in stock prices.

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Article provided by Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece in its journal International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research (IJESAR).

Volume (Year): 5 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 129-146

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Handle: RePEc:tei:journl:v:5:y:2012:i:3:p:129-146
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://ijbesar.teiemt.gr/

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  1. Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold & April, . "A No-Arbitrage Approach to Range-Based Estimation of Return Covariances and Correlations," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-15, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  2. Klößner, Stefan & Becker, Martin & Friedmann, Ralph, 2012. "Modeling and measuring intraday overreaction of stock prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1152-1163.
  3. Yin-wong Cheung, 2006. "An Empirical Model of Daily Highs and Lows," Working Papers 072006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  4. Parkinson, Michael, 1980. "The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 61-65, January.
  5. Atkins, Allen B. & Dyl, Edward A., 1990. "Price Reversals, Bid-Ask Spreads, and Market Efficiency," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 535-547, December.
  6. Cox, Don R & Peterson, David R, 1994. " Stock Returns Following Large One-Day Declines: Evidence on Short-Term Reversals and Longer-Term Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 255-67, March.
  7. Conrad, Jennifer S & Hameed, Allaudeen & Niden, Cathy, 1994. " Volume and Autocovariances in Short-Horizon Individual Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1305-29, September.
  8. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. " Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-98, July.
  9. Park, Jinwoo, 1995. "A Market Microstructure Explanation for Predictable Variations in Stock Returns following Large Price Changes," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(02), pages 241-256, June.
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