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The Interrelationship between Money Supply, Prices and Government Expenditures and Economic Growth: A Causality Analysis for the Case of Cyprus

Author

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  • Andreas G. Georgantopoulos

    () (Department of Public Administration, Panteion University of Political and Social Sciences, 136, Sygrou Ave. 176 71,Athens, Greece)

  • Anastasios D. Tsamis

    () (Department of Public Administration, Panteion University of Political and Social Sciences, 136, Sygrou Ave. 176 71, Athens, Greece)

Abstract

This paper investigates the short run as well the long run relationships between money supply, inflation, government expenditure and economic growth by employing the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) and Johansen co-integration test respectively for the case of Cyprus using annual data from 1980 to 2009. Collectively, empirical results imply that public spending promotes economic development in Cyprus. However, deficit financing by the government causes more liquidity effects but also inflationary pressure in the economy. Results show that inflation negatively effects economic growth probably due to adverse supply shock. Money supply should be allowed to grow according to the real output of the economy but excess growth of money causes inflationary pressure in case of Cyprus. Therefore, this paper suggests that the government should control its current expenditure that stimulates aggregate demand and to focus more on development expenditure which stimulates aggregate supply and increases real output level.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas G. Georgantopoulos & Anastasios D. Tsamis, 2012. "The Interrelationship between Money Supply, Prices and Government Expenditures and Economic Growth: A Causality Analysis for the Case of Cyprus," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 5(3), pages 115-128, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:tei:journl:v:5:y:2012:i:3:p:115-128
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93.
    3. Woon Gyu Choi & Michael B. Devereux, 2006. "Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending: Does the Level of Real Interest Rates Matter?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(si), pages 1-8.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Impact of Government Expenditure on Growth; The Case of Azerbaijan," IMF Working Papers 08/115, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Hassapis, Christis & Pittis, Nikitas & Prodromidis, Kyprianos, 1999. "Unit roots and Granger causality in the EMS interest rates: the German Dominance Hypothesis revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-73, January.
    6. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    7. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    9. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2007. "The Relation between Government Expenditures and Economic Growth in Thailand," MPRA Paper 46070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Greenwell Collins Matchaya & Pius Chilonda & Sibusiso Nhelengethwa, 2013. "International Trade and Income in Malawi: A Co-integration and Causality Approach," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 6(2), pages 125-147, September.
    2. Betty Annan & William Bekoe & Edward Nketiah-Amponsah, 2013. "Determinants of Tax Evasion in Ghana: 1970-2010," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 6(3), pages 97-121, December.
    3. Birg├╝l Cambazo─člu & Hacer Simay Karaalp, 2013. "The External Finance Premium and the Financial Accelerator: The Case of Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 6(1), pages 103-121, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic development; Co-integration; Granger causality; Deficit financing;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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