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Modeling Car Ownership in Turkey Using Fuzzy Regression

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  • Kemal Selçuk Öğüt

Abstract

This article develops a model which can be used to determine car ownership in Turkey. Because of the lack of disaggregated data, the model is based on aggregated data. As owning a car is mainly affected by economic, social and demographic factors, the car ownership model has a multi-variable form. In order to explain the effects of these factors on car ownership in Turkey, a fuzzy multiple-regression model is used. The major reason for applying fuzzy regression is to overcome the intercorrelation problem associated with the independent variables. In this study, the urbanization rate, average family size, gross national product per capita, average car cost, gasoline price and total length of roads are selected as independent variables. The results show that, by applying a multi-variable approach to possibilistic regression, the model provides not only a crisp output but also an output range for car ownership in Turkey between 1970 and 2000.

Suggested Citation

  • Kemal Selçuk Öğüt, 2006. "Modeling Car Ownership in Turkey Using Fuzzy Regression," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 233-248, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:transp:v:29:y:2006:i:3:p:233-248
    DOI: 10.1080/03081060600811004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wang, Hsiao-Fan & Tsaur, Ruey-Chyn, 2000. "Resolution of fuzzy regression model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 637-650, November.
    2. Profillidis, V.A, 2000. "Econometric and fuzzy models for the forecast of demand in the airport of Rhodes," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 95-100.
    3. M.E. Beesley & J.F. Kain, 1964. "Urban Form, Car Ownership and Public Policy: an Appraisal of Traffic in Towns," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 1(2), pages 174-203, November.
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