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Increasing Returns and the Growth of Industries in the EU Regions: Paradoxes and Conundrums

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  • Alvaro Angeriz
  • John McCombie
  • Mark Roberts

Abstract

Abstract Verdoorn's law is estimated in a spatial econometric framework for individual manufacturing industries using EU regional data. Estimates of encompassing returns to scale are large, but other explanatory variables, including measures of industrial specialization and diversity, tend to be insignificant. The method of normalization with either output or input growth as the regressor matters, and the use of an instrumental variable approach does not resolve this problem. As in other studies, the static-dynamic Verdoorn law paradox exists. A theoretical argument is made, however, that the dynamic Verdoorn law is the correct specification and this is confirmed empirically. Rendements croissants et croissance des industries dans les régions de l'UE: paradoxes et énigmes Résumé La loi de Verdoorn est estimée dans un cadre conceptuel économétrique spatial pour les industries de fabrication individuelles en utilisant des données régionales de l'UE. Les estimations des rendements croissants à l’échelle, englobant, sont importantes, mais d'autres variables explicatives, comprenant des mesures de spécialisation et de diversité industrielles, ont tendance à être insignifiantes. La méthode de normalisation utilisant comme variable indépendante soit la croissance d'entrée soit celle de sortie importe, et l'utilisation d'une approche IV ne résout pas ce problème. Comme dans d'autres études, le paradoxe statique-dynamique de la loi de Verdoorn est présent. Cependant, dans un argument théorique, nous avançons que la loi de Verdoorn dynamique est la spécification correcte, ce qui est confirmé empiriquement. Aumento de las ganancias y crecimiento de la industria en las regiones de la UE: paradojas y acertijos Résumén Se estima la Ley de Verdoorn en un marco econométrico espacial para empresas manufactureras individuales usando los datos regionales de la UE. Las estimaciones para las ganancias englobadas a escala son grandes, pero otras variables explicativas, incluyendo las medidas de especialización y diversidad industrial, tienden a ser insignificantes. Importa el método de normalización ya sea usando crecimiento de ganancias o entradas como regressor, y el uso de un enfoque IV no resuelve este problema. Al igual que en otros estudios existe la paradoja estática-dinámica de la ley de Verdoorn. Sin embargo, se argumenta teóricamente que la dinámica ley de Verdoorn es la especificación correcta y esto se confirma empíricamente.

Suggested Citation

  • Alvaro Angeriz & John McCombie & Mark Roberts, 2009. "Increasing Returns and the Growth of Industries in the EU Regions: Paradoxes and Conundrums," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 127-148.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:specan:v:4:y:2009:i:2:p:127-148
    DOI: 10.1080/17421770902833972
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Douglas Alencar & Frederico G. Jayme Jr & Gustavo Britto, 2021. "A post-Kaleckian model with productivity growth and real exchange rate applied to selected Latin American countries," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 74(297), pages 127-146.
    2. Adrián Rial & Rafael Fernández, 2023. "Does tertiarisation slow down productivity growth? A Kaldorian–Baumolian analysis across 10 developed economies," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 188-222, February.
    3. repec:ilo:ilowps:470930 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. João Prates Romero, 2016. "Increasing Returns To Scale, Technological Catch-Up And Research Intensity: An Industry-Level Investigation Combining Eu Klems Productivity Data With Patent Data," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 102, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    5. Storm, Servaas. & Naastepad, C.W.M.,, 2012. "Wage-led or profit-led supply : wages, productivity and investment," ILO Working Papers 994709303402676, International Labour Organization.
    6. Herrero, Daniel & Rial, Adrián, 2023. "Labor costs, KIBS, and export performance: A comparative analysis of Germany and Mediterranean economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 184-198.
    7. Harry Kelejian & Gianfranco Piras, 2020. "Spillover effects in spatial models: Generalizations and extensions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 425-442, June.
    8. Douglas Alencar & Frederico G. Jayme & Gustavo Britto & Cláudio Puty, 2021. "Distribution and Productivity Growth: An Empirical Exercise Applied to Selected Latin American Countries," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 487-510, July.
    9. Richard Harris & John Moffat, 2011. "Plant-level Determinants of Total Factor Productivity in Great Britain, 1997-2006," SERC Discussion Papers 0064, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    10. Delphin Kamanda Espoir & Nicholas Ngepah, 2021. "Income distribution and total factor productivity: a cross-country panel cointegration analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 661-698, October.
    11. Wilson Quijano & Diego Alejandro Guevara-Castañeda, 2021. "Desindustrialización: evidencias desde una mirada kaldoriana para Colombia (2005-2017)," Ensayos de Economía 19342, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín.
    12. Hien Nguyen Hoang & A. I. Kashirin & V. V. Strenalyuk & A. S. Semenov & O. Y. Kazenkov & Yuri A. Chepurko, 2022. "Economic Growth by Innovative Development in Energy Sector: The Case of Oil and Gas Export in Russia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 466-471, September.
    13. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández, 2018. "Alternative Approaches to Technological Change when Growth is BoPC," Department of Economics University of Siena 795, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    14. Guilherme Riccioppo Magacho, 2017. "Structural change and economic growth: Advances and limitations of Kaldorian growth models," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(280), pages 35-57.
    15. Paolo Postiglione & Maria Simona Andreano & Roberto Benedetti, 2017. "Spatial Clusters in EU Productivity Growth," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 40-60, March.
    16. B. Fingleton & P. Cheshire & H. Garretsen & D. Igliori & J. Le Gallo & P. McCann & J. McCombie & V. Monastiriotis & B. Moore & M. Roberts, 2009. "Editorial," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 121-125.
    17. João Prates Romero, 2018. "A Kaldor-Schumpeter Model Of Cumulative Growth: Combining Increasing Returns And Non-Price Competitiveness With Technological Catch-Up And Research Intensity," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 75, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    18. Vasily Astrov & Nikolay Kondrashov & Liudmila Konovalova & Valeriy Mironov & Leon Podkaminer, 2020. "Monthly Report No. 02/2020," wiiw Monthly Reports 2020-02, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Increasing returns; Verdoorn's law; manufacturing; productivity growth; spatial econometrics; O18; O33; R11;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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