IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/oaefxx/v5y2017i1p1419778.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The influence of the real effective exchange rate and relative prices on South Africa’s import demand function: An ARDL approach

Author

Listed:
  • Tony Nchokoe Matlasedi

Abstract

This paper analyses the influence of the real effective exchange rate (REER) and relative prices on South Africa’s import demand function both in the long run and the short run. The ARDL bounds testing approach is employed to test the long-run relationship hypothesis. The estimation of both the long-run and short-run import demand models is based on the ARDL error correction methodology. All the tests are applied to South Africa’s secondary quarterly data covering the period 1980Q1–2014Q4. Real GDP and Foreign reserves were also added to the models as control variables. The Bounds test proved cointegration and the results show that in the long run, South Africa’s import demand is negatively related to the REER, while being positively related to Real GDP (used as a proxy for national income) and relative prices. The coefficient of the relative price variable is greater than 1 in absolute terms, thus also confirming the Marshal Lerner condition. In the short run, import demand is found to be negatively related to the REER, while being positively related to Real GDP, relative prices and the stock of foreign reserves. The result gives hope that a policy aimed at depreciating the currency may help bring down the surge in import demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Tony Nchokoe Matlasedi, 2017. "The influence of the real effective exchange rate and relative prices on South Africa’s import demand function: An ARDL approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1419778-141, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:oaefxx:v:5:y:2017:i:1:p:1419778
    DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2017.1419778
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/23322039.2017.1419778
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/23322039.2017.1419778?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Orhan Kara, 2003. "Relative Responsiveness of Trade Flows to a Change in Prices and Exchange Rate," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 293-308.
    3. D. Lawrence & G. Van Der Westhuizen, 1990. "Trade Elasticities for South Africa: An Empirical Model," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 58(3), pages 197-203, September.
    4. S. B. Kahn, 1987. "Import Penetration and Import Demands in the South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 55(3), pages 155-162, September.
    5. Ivohasina Fizara Razafimahefa & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2005. "Import Demand Function: Some Evidence from Madagascar and Mauritius," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 14(3), pages 411-434, September.
    6. I. R. Woods, 1958. "Some Aspects Of South Africa'S Foreign Trade In Relation To Her Aggregate Income, 1910–541," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 26(2), pages 136-151, June.
    7. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    8. M. Abimbola Oyinlola & Oluwatosin Adeniyi & Olusegun Omisakin, 2010. "Responsiveness of Trade Flows to Changes in Exchange rate and Relative prices: Evidence from Nigeria," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 3(2), pages 123-141, December.
    9. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    10. Truett, Lila J. & Truett, Dale B., 2003. "A cost function analysis of import demand and growth in South Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 425-442, April.
    11. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Zohre Ardalani, 2006. "Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Trade Flows: Evidence from Industry Data," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(3), pages 542-559, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Forgenie, David & Khoiriyah, Nikmatul, 2023. "Analyzing Food Import Demand in Indonesia: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 11(1), January.
    2. Manamba Epaphra & Lucas E. Kaaya, 2020. "Tax Revenue Effect of Sectoral Growth and Public Expenditure in Tanzania: An application of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 15(3), pages 81-120, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nektarios A. Michail, 2018. "Estimating a Bilateral J‐curve between the UK and the Euro Area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 86(6), pages 757-769, December.
    2. Giovanni Tria & Giuseppe Galloppo, 2010. "How Does National Foreign Trade React To The European Central Bank’S Policy?," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 4(2), pages 137-151.
    3. Amjad Ali & Muhammad Irfan Chani, 2013. "Disaggregated Import Demand Function: A Case Study of Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 1(1), pages 1-14, January.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2013. "Empirical tests of the Marshall-Lerner condition: a literature review," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 411-443, May.
    5. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2005. "Revisiting South Korea's Import Demand Behavior: A Cointegration Analysis," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 29-50, March.
    6. Muhammad Omer & Junaid Kamal & Jakob Haan, 2023. "Does an exchange rate depreciation improve the trade balance of Pakistan?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 163-185, February.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2012. "Exchange-Rate Volatility And Industry Trade Between The U.S. And Korea," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 1-27, March.
    8. Muhammad Shafiullah & Ravinthirakumaran Navaratnam, 2016. "Do Bangladesh and Sri Lanka Enjoy Export-Led Growth? A Comparison of Two Small South Asian Economies," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 17(1), pages 114-132, March.
    9. R. Santos Alimi, 2014. "ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration: A Re-Examination of Augmented Fisher Hypothesis in an Open Economy," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(2), pages 103-114, June.
    10. Ulrich Witt & Christian Gross, 2020. "The rise of the “service economy” in the second half of the twentieth century and its energetic contingencies," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 231-246, April.
    11. Özcan Karahan & Olcay Çolak, 2019. "Examining the Validity of Wagner's Law versus Keynesian Hypothesis: Evidence from Turkey's Economy," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 66(1), pages 117-130, March.
    12. Carmen van der Merwe & Martin de Wit, 2021. "An In-Depth Investigation into the Relationship Between Municipal Solid Waste Generation and Economic Growth in the City of Cape Town," Working Papers 07/2021, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics, revised 2021.
    13. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    14. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2013. "Environmental Kuznet’s curve for India: Evidence from tests for cointegration with unknown structuralbreaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 509-515.
    15. Caner Demir, 2019. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Fluctuations: The Case of BIST-100," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, February.
    16. Ozturk, Ilhan & Acaravci, Ali, 2010. "The causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania: Evidence from ARDL bound testing approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1938-1943, June.
    17. Ahmed, Khalid, 2015. "The sheer scale of China’s urban renewal and CO2 emissions: Multiple structural breaks, long-run relationship and short-run dynamics," MPRA Paper 71035, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Sohail Abbas & Shazia Kousar & Amber Pervaiz, 2021. "Effects of energy consumption and ecological footprint on CO2 emissions: an empirical evidence from Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(9), pages 13364-13381, September.
    19. Sumera Arshad & Amajd Ali, 2016. "Trade-off between Inflation, Interest and Unemployment Rate of Pakistan: Revisited," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(4), pages 193-209, December.
    20. Perles-Ribes, José Francisco & Ramón-Rodríguez, Ana Belén & Rubia, Antonio & Moreno-Izquierdo, Luis, 2017. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid after the global economic and financial crisis? The case of Spain 1957–2014," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 96-109.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:oaefxx:v:5:y:2017:i:1:p:1419778. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/OAEF20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.