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A tale of six states: How similar are the Gulf Cooperation Council countries?

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  • Ken Imanak Sagynbekov

Abstract

This paper reports the convergence rates for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using a Bayesian shrinkage estimator. The estimated convergence rates using a panel dataset covering period from 1972 to 2008 across six countries vary from 9% to 22% per year. The results of a Bayesian change point calculations indicate that following a dramatic change in the crude oil prices in 1985, the pattern of σ-convergence reversed. Based on the estimated steady states for each country, the rank order is hypothesized to be a function of the percentage of foreign workers in the labor force.

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  • Ken Imanak Sagynbekov, 2014. "A tale of six states: How similar are the Gulf Cooperation Council countries?," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 476-490, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:23:y:2014:i:4:p:476-490
    DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2012.762587
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