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A Note on Forecasting the Euro: Do Forecasters Have an Asymmetric Loss Function?

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  • Ulrich Fritsche
  • Christian Pierdzioch
  • Jan-Christoph R�lke
  • Georg Stadtmann

Abstract

Based on the approach advanced by Elliott, Komunjer, and Timmermann (2005), we analyzed whether the loss function of a sample of exchange-rate forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Using forecasts of the dollar/euro exchange rate, we found that the shape of the loss function varies across forecasters. Some forecasters appear to make forecasts under an asymmetric loss function, while a symmetric loss function seems to describe well the loss function of other forecasters. Accounting for an asymmetric loss function does not necessarily make forecasts 'look' rational.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulrich Fritsche & Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph R�lke & Georg Stadtmann, 2014. "A Note on Forecasting the Euro: Do Forecasters Have an Asymmetric Loss Function?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 333-343, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:28:y:2013:i:2:p:333-343
    DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2013.810661
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    2. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Asymmetric loss and rationality of Chinese renminbi forecasts: An implication for the trade between China and the US," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 116-127.
    3. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2015. "On the directional accuracy of forecasts of emerging market exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 369-376.
    4. Kiss, Tamás & Kladívko, Kamil & Silfverberg, Oliwer & Österholm, Pär, 2023. "Market participants or the random walk – who forecasts better? Evidence from micro-level survey data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    5. Giovannelli, Alessandro & Pericoli, Filippo Maria, 2020. "Are GDP forecasts optimal? Evidence on European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 963-973.

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