IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/intecj/v16y2002i4p97-106.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Causality Between Exports, Imports and Income In Trinidad and Tobago

Author

Listed:
  • Howard Michael

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between exports, imports and income in the economy of Trinidad and Tobago, using the methodology of Granger causality and error correction modeling. Our results show that there is unidirectional Granger causation from exports to income (GDP), and bidirectional causation between exports and imports and imports and income. The Economy of Trinidad and Tobago is a petroleum exporting economy where oil-export booms raise income levels, but this is usually followed by a slump. The bivariate models should be interpreted with caution because of the possibility of omitted variable bias. [F14, C22]

Suggested Citation

  • Howard Michael, 2002. "Causality Between Exports, Imports and Income In Trinidad and Tobago," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 97-106.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:16:y:2002:i:4:p:97-106
    DOI: 10.1080/10168730200000030
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10168730200000030
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/10168730200000030?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Dueker & Richard Startz, 1998. "Maximum-Likelihood Estimation Of Fractional Cointegration With An Application To U.S. And Canadian Bond Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 420-426, August.
    2. T. Chang & W. Fang & W. Liu & Thompson Henry, 2000. "Exports, Imports and Income in Taiwan: An Examination of the Export Led Growth Hypothesis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 151-160.
    3. Auty, Richard & Gelb, Alan, 1986. "Oil windfalls in a small parliamentary democracy: Their impact on Trinidad and Tobago," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 1161-1175, September.
    4. Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
    5. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    6. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    7. Fardmanesh, Mohsen, 1991. "Dutch disease economics and oil syndrome: An empirical study," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 711-717, June.
    8. Luintel, Kul B. & Khan, Mosahid, 1999. "A quantitative reassessment of the finance-growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 381-405, December.
    9. Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1984. "Inflation, Employment, and the Dutch Disease in Oil-Exporting Countries: A Short-Run Disequilibrium Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(2), pages 233-250.
    10. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1982. "Non-causality due to omitted variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 367-378, August.
    11. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    12. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    13. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "A Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 103-112, January.
    14. Wojciech W. Charemza & Derek F. Deadman, 1992. "New Directions In Econometric Practice," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 84.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hosein, Roger & Satnarine-Singh, Nirvana & Saridakis, George, 2022. "The Spillover Effect of Exports: An Analysis of Caribbean SIDs," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 75(1), pages 1-28.
    2. Muhammad Shahbaz & Pervaz Azim & Khalil Ahmad, 2011. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 182-197.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muhammad Shahbaz & Pervaz Azim & Khalil Ahmad, 2011. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 182-197.
    2. Wu, Jyh-lin, 1998. "Are budget deficits "too large"?: The evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 519-528.
    3. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L. A. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2004. "Is the US fiscal deficit sustainable?: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 501-526.
    4. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688, Elsevier.
    5. Cuestas, Juan C. & Gil-Alana, Luís A., 2009. "Further evidence on the PPP analysis of the Australian dollar: Non-linearities, fractional integration and structural changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1184-1192, November.
    6. Tang, Tuck Cheong, 2003. "An empirical analysis of China's aggregate import demand function," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 142-163.
    7. E. Schirru, 1996. "Modelli di determinazione del tasso di cambio: un'analisi di cointegrazione," Working Paper CRENoS 199610, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    8. Coe, Patrick J. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2002. "Bounds tests of the theory of purchasing power parity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 179-199, January.
    9. George Hondroyiannis & Sarantis Lolos & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2004. "Financial Markets and Economic Growth in Greece," Working Papers 17, Bank of Greece.
    10. Shrestha, Min B. & Chowdhury, Khorshed, 2005. "ARDL Modelling Approach to Testing the Financial Liberalisation Hypothesis," Economics Working Papers wp05-15, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    11. Nilss Olekalns & Nigel Wilkins, 1998. "Re‐examining the Evidence for Long‐Run Purchasing Power Parity," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(224), pages 54-61, March.
    12. Michael KUEHL, 2008. "Strong Comovements of Exchange Rates: Theoretical and Empirical Cases when Currencies Become the Same Asset," EcoMod2008 23800071, EcoMod.
    13. Serletis, Apostolos & Shahmoradi, Asghar, 2007. "Chaos, self-organized criticality, and SETAR nonlinearity: An analysis of purchasing power parity between Canada and the United States," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1437-1444.
    14. W A Razzak, 2007. "A Perspective on Unit Root and Cointegration in Applied Macroeconomics," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(1), pages 77-102.
    15. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L.A. & de Gracia, F. Perez, 2005. "A test for rational bubbles in the NASDAQ stock index: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2633-2654, October.
    16. Wang, Chong, 1998. "Testing for purchasing power parity: a nonlinear approach," ISU General Staff Papers 1998010108000013534, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    17. Bierens, H.J. & Broersma, L., 1991. "The relation between unemployment and interest rate : some international evidence," Serie Research Memoranda 0112, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    18. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Eu Chye, 2015. "Does tourism effectively stimulate Malaysia's economic growth?," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 158-163.
    19. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    20. Sunil Kanwar, 1998. "Are production risk and labour market risk covariant?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 129-146.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:16:y:2002:i:4:p:97-106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RIEJ20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.