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Causality Between Exports, Imports and Income In Trinidad and Tobago

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  • Howard Michael

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between exports, imports and income in the economy of Trinidad and Tobago, using the methodology of Granger causality and error correction modeling. Our results show that there is unidirectional Granger causation from exports to income (GDP), and bidirectional causation between exports and imports and imports and income. The Economy of Trinidad and Tobago is a petroleum exporting economy where oil-export booms raise income levels, but this is usually followed by a slump. The bivariate models should be interpreted with caution because of the possibility of omitted variable bias. [F14, C22]

Suggested Citation

  • Howard Michael, 2002. "Causality Between Exports, Imports and Income In Trinidad and Tobago," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 97-106.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:16:y:2002:i:4:p:97-106
    DOI: 10.1080/10168730200000030
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1984. "Inflation, Employment, and the Dutch Disease in Oil-Exporting Countries: A Short-Run Disequilibrium Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(2), pages 233-250.
    8. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1982. "Non-causality due to omitted variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 367-378, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Akmal, Muhammad Shahbaz & Ahmad, Khalil & Ali, Muhammad, 2009. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," MPRA Paper 16043, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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