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Predicting the Price Effect of Mergers with Polynomial Logit Demand

  • Atanu Saha
  • Peter Simon
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    We propose a polynomial logit model to quantify the price effects of mergers in a static Nash setting. The proposed model is parsimonious in parameters and is shown to have excellent predictive power, rivaling the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive accuracy of the widely-used AIDS model.The analysis, using actual scanner data on bread sales, demonstrates that a linear logit model is likely to over-estimate the merger price effect.

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    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal International Journal of the Economics of Business.

    Volume (Year): 7 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 149-157

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:ijecbs:v:7:y:2000:i:2:p:149-157
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    1. Werden, Gregory J, 1996. "A Robust Test for Consumer Welfare Enhancing Mergers among Sellers of Differentiated Products," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 409-13, December.
    2. D. McFadden & J. Hausman, 1981. "Specification Tests for the Multinominal Logit Model," Working papers 292, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    3. Werden, Gregory J., 1997. "Simulating The Effects Of Differentiated Products Mergers: A Practitioners' Guide," Proceedings: Strategy and Policy in the Food System: Emerging Issues, June 20-21, 1996, Washington, D.C. 25942, Regional Research Project NE-165 Private Strategies, Public Policies, and Food System Performance.
    4. Jerry HAUSMAN & Gregory LEONARD & J. Douglas ZONA, 1994. "Competitive Analysis with Differentiated Products," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 34, pages 159-180.
    5. Philip Crooke & Luke Froeb & Steven Tschantz & Gregory Werden, 1999. "Effects of Assumed Demand Form on Simulated Postmerger Equilibria," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 205-217, November.
    6. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June.
    7. Werden, Gregory J & Froeb, Luke M, 1994. "The Effects of Mergers in Differentiated Products Industries: Logit Demand and Merger Policy," Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 407-26, October.
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