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Price exhaustion and number preference: time and price confluence in Australian stock prices


  • Chris Doucouliagos


Confluence occurs when different trading filters generate signals that point to the same directional move. Using regression analysis, this paper investigates confluence trading signals associated with number preference and price exhaustion, for a sample of Australian stocks. The results show that certain price levels tend to act as psychological barriers, and that price exhaustion signals are a real phenomenon in the Australian stock market. It is shown also that confluence exists in the Australian stock market. Importantly, confluence is associated with price retracements that are of economic and statistical significance, offering profitable trading opportunities. The results suggest that Australian stocks do not follow a random walk.

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Doucouliagos, 2005. "Price exhaustion and number preference: time and price confluence in Australian stock prices," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 207-221.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:11:y:2005:i:3:p:207-221 DOI: 10.1080/1351847042000254194

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Aitken, Michael & Brown, Philip & Buckland, Christine & Izan, H. Y. & Walter, Terry, 1996. "Price clustering on the Australian Stock Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 297-314, July.
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    7. Skouras, Spyros, 2001. "Financial returns and efficiency as seen by an artificial technical analyst," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 213-244, January.
    8. Eduardo Ley & Hal R. Varian, 1994. "Are there Psychological Barriers in the Dow-Jones Index?," Finance 9401002, EconWPA, revised 27 Oct 2001.
    9. Badi H. Baltagi & James M. Griffin & Weiwen Xiong, 2000. "To Pool Or Not To Pool: Homogeneous Versus Hetergeneous Estimations Applied to Cigarette Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 117-126, February.
    10. Koedijk, Kees G. & Stork, Philip A., 1994. "Should we care? psychological barriers in stock markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 427-432, April.
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    Price exhaustion; number preference; confluence;


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