The decomposition of US and Euro area stock and bond returns and their sensitivity to economic state variables
This paper decomposes US and Euro area excess stock and bond return innovations into news factors using the Campbell-Schiller methodology. The results indicate that stock return volatility is mostly due to volatility of future excess return news. Inflation news plays a minor role although it is significantly correlated with excess return innovations. For the bond market too, it is future return news—not inflation news—that moves bond returns most. For finite investment horizons, however, asset market movements give a differential importance to the various news components. Results are comparable for the US and the Euro area, but differ in terms of magnitudes. In addition, sensitivities ('betas') to a set of state variables are estimated, yielding high interest rate betas and low money growth betas. Generally, inflation, unemployment and leading indicator betas are significant. Asset market exposures to oil and exchange rate changes are more significant for the Euro area than in the US.
Volume (Year): 10 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/REJF20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/REJF20|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Davis, E Philip & Fagan, Gabriel, 1997. "Are Financial Spreads Useful Indicators of Future Inflation and Output Growth in EU Countries?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 701-14, Nov.-Dec..
- Owen Lamont, .
"Economic Tracking Portfolios.","
CRSP working papers
489, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- John Y. Campbell, 1990.
"A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns,"
NBER Working Papers
3246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997.
"Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-84, November.
- Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
- Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay, 1992. "Stock return variation and expected dividends : A time-series and cross-sectional analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 177-210, April.
- David Hendry & Jurgen Doornik, 2000.
"Constructing Historical Euro-Zone Data,"
Economics Series Working Papers
4, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989.
"The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity,"
8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
- Jorion, Philippe & Mishkin, Frederic, 1991.
"A multicountry comparison of term-structure forecasts at long horizons,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 59-80, March.
- Philippe Jorion & Frederic Mishkin, 1991. "A Multi-Country Comparison of Term Structure Forecasts at Long Horizons," NBER Working Papers 3574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John H. Boyd & Jian Hu & Ravi Jagannathan, 2005.
"The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News Is Usually Good for Stocks,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 649-672, 04.
- John H. Boyd & Ravi Jagannathan & Jian Hu, 2001. "The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News is Usually Good for Stocks," NBER Working Papers 8092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cuthbertson, Keith & Hayes, Simon & Nitzsche, Dirk, 1997. "The Behaviour of UK Stock Prices and Returns: Is the Market Efficient?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(443), pages 986-1008, July.
- Black, Angela & Fraser, Patricia, 2002. "Stock market short-termism--an international perspective," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 135-158, April.
- Ammer, John & Campbell, John, 1993.
"What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns,"
3382857, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. " What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
- John Y. Campbell & John Ammer, 1991. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 3760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Ammer, J., 1991. "What Moves The Stock And Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition For Long- Term Asset Returns," Papers 127, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
- Hui Guo, 2002. "Why are stock market returns correlated with future economic activities?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar., pages 19-34.
- Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell, 1986.
"The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June.
- Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2001. "The Danish stock and bond markets: comovement, return predictability and variance decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 243-271, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:10:y:2004:i:2:p:149-173. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.