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The Behaviour of UK Stock Prices and Returns: Is the Market Efficient?

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  • Cuthbertson, Keith
  • Hayes, Simon
  • Nitzsche, Dirk

Abstract

The VAR methodology of J. Y. Campbell and R. J. Shiller (1989) is employed under four different assumptions regarding equilibrium expected returns to assess the efficiency of the U.K. stock market. In the authors' first model, equilibrium expected (real) returns are assumed to be constant, while in the second model, excess returns are assumed to be constant. The next two models assume that equilibrium returns depend upon a time-varying risk premium which varies with the conditional expectation of the return variance (i.e., the CAPM). The authors' results yield evidence of short-termism, even when the key assumption of a time-invariant discount rate is relaxed. Copyright 1997 by Royal Economic Society.

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  • Cuthbertson, Keith & Hayes, Simon & Nitzsche, Dirk, 1997. "The Behaviour of UK Stock Prices and Returns: Is the Market Efficient?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(443), pages 986-1008, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:107:y:1997:i:443:p:986-1008
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    Cited by:

    1. Engsted, Tom, 2002. " Measures of Fit for Rational Expectations Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 301-355, July.
    2. Angela Black & Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli, 2005. "House Prices, Fundamentals and Inflation," FAME Research Paper Series rp129, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    3. Allen, D.E & Yang, W, 2004. "Do UK stock prices deviate from fundamentals?," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 373-383.
    4. Nico Valckx, 2004. "The decomposition of US and Euro area stock and bond returns and their sensitivity to economic state variables," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 149-173.
    5. Ma, Jun & Wohar, Mark E., 2014. "Determining what drives stock returns: Proper inference is crucial: Evidence from the UK," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 371-390.
    6. Davies, Richard & Haldane, Andrew G. & Nielsen, Mette & Pezzini, Silvia, 2014. "Measuring the costs of short-termism," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 16-25.
    7. Cuthbertson, Keith & Hyde, Stuart, 2002. "Excess volatility and efficiency in French and German stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 399-418, May.
    8. Cuthbertson, Keith & Hayes, Simon & Nitzsche, Dirk, 1999. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 1-19.
    9. Pedro Verga Matos & Miguel Coelho, 2016. "Short-Termism In Euronext Lisbon: An Empirical Analysis," Portuguese Journal of Management Studies, ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa, vol. 21(1), pages 49-76.

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