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The Behaviour of UK Stock Prices and Returns: Is the Market Efficient?

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  • Cuthbertson, Keith
  • Hayes, Simon
  • Nitzsche, Dirk

Abstract

The VAR methodology of J. Y. Campbell and R. J. Shiller (1989) is employed under four different assumptions regarding equilibrium expected returns to assess the efficiency of the U.K. stock market. In the authors' first model, equilibrium expected (real) returns are assumed to be constant, while in the second model, excess returns are assumed to be constant. The next two models assume that equilibrium returns depend upon a time-varying risk premium which varies with the conditional expectation of the return variance (i.e., the CAPM). The authors' results yield evidence of short-termism, even when the key assumption of a time-invariant discount rate is relaxed. Copyright 1997 by Royal Economic Society.

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  • Cuthbertson, Keith & Hayes, Simon & Nitzsche, Dirk, 1997. "The Behaviour of UK Stock Prices and Returns: Is the Market Efficient?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(443), pages 986-1008, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:107:y:1997:i:443:p:986-1008
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    Cited by:

    1. Javier Rojo‐Suárez & Ana Belén Alonso‐Conde & Ricardo Ferrero‐Pozo, 2022. "Liquidity, time‐varying betas and anomalies: Is the high trading activity enhancing the validity of the CAPM in the UK equity market?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 45-60, January.
    2. Angela Black & Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli, 2005. "House Prices, Fundamentals and Inflation," FAME Research Paper Series rp129, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    3. Gallagher, Liam A & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Risky Arbitrage, Limits of Arbitrage, and Nonlinear Adjustment in the Dividend-Price Ratio," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 524-536, October.
    4. Allen, D.E & Yang, W, 2004. "Do UK stock prices deviate from fundamentals?," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 373-383.
    5. Liam A. Gallagher & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices: Evidence from Assessing Macroeconomic Shocks," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(2), pages 345-362, October.
    6. Nico Valckx, 2004. "The decomposition of US and Euro area stock and bond returns and their sensitivity to economic state variables," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 149-173.
    7. Ma, Jun & Wohar, Mark E., 2014. "Determining what drives stock returns: Proper inference is crucial: Evidence from the UK," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 371-390.
    8. Davies, Richard & Haldane, Andrew G. & Nielsen, Mette & Pezzini, Silvia, 2014. "Measuring the costs of short-termism," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 16-25.
    9. Cuthbertson, Keith & Hyde, Stuart, 2002. "Excess volatility and efficiency in French and German stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 399-418, May.
    10. Pedro Verga Matos & Miguel Coelho, 2016. "Short-Termism In Euronext Lisbon: An Empirical Analysis," Portuguese Journal of Management Studies, ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa, vol. 21(1), pages 49-76.
    11. K. Cuthbertson & D. Nitzsche & S. Hyde, 2007. "Monetary Policy And Behavioural Finance," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 935-969, December.
    12. Engsted, Tom, 2002. "Measures of Fit for Rational Expectations Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 301-355, July.
    13. Oliver Holtemöller & Rainer Schulz, 2010. "Investor Rationality and House Price Bubbles: Berlin and the German Reunification," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(4), pages 465-486, November.
    14. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2006. "Dividend Yields for Forecasting Stock Market Returns. An ARDL Cointegration Analysis for Germany," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 9(1), pages 86-116, Summer.
    15. Oliver Holtemöller & Rainer Schulz, 2010. "Investor Rationality and House Price Bubbles: Berlin and the German Reunification," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(4), pages 465-486, November.
    16. Cuthbertson, Keith & Hayes, Simon & Nitzsche, Dirk, 1999. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 1-19.

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