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Non-parametric analysis of poverty duration using repeated cross section: an application for Peru


  • Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza
  • Marcos Robles


Using repeated cross-section annual data for Peru spanning 2002–2011 and non-parametric duration analysis, our estimates support the hypothesis that both stay in and exit from poverty (non-poverty) depends on the duration and sequence of poverty (non-poverty) spells. We find that longer periods in poverty reduce the probability of leaving poverty and, conversely, longer periods spent out of poverty reduce the chance of falling back into poverty. Also, we show that, at least in the last decade (of high economic growth), the probability of staying in poverty was lower than staying in non-poverty and the probability of re-entering in poverty was higher than re-entering in non-poverty, being both differences growing with the number of accumulated spells. Past experiences of poverty and non-poverty seem to be essential to predict the future status of poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza & Marcos Robles, 2017. "Non-parametric analysis of poverty duration using repeated cross section: an application for Peru," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(22), pages 2141-2152, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:22:p:2141-2152
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1234696

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, January.
    2. Bob Baulch & John Hoddinott, 2000. "Economic mobility and poverty dynamics in developing countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 1-24.
    3. Azevedo, Joao Pedro & Davalos, Maria Eugenia & Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina & Atuesta, Bernardo & Castaneda, Raul Andres, 2013. "Fifteen years of inequality in Latin America : how have labor markets helped ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6384, The World Bank.
    4. Sabina Alkire, Mauricio Apablaza, Satya R. Chakravarty and Gaston Yalonetzky, 2014. "Measuring Chronic Multidimensional Poverty: A Counting Approach," OPHI Working Papers ophiwp075, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
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    1. repec:taf:apeclt:v:25:y:2018:i:9:p:624-627 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Marco Stampini & Marcos Robles & Mayra Sáenz & Pablo Ibarrarán & Nadin Medellín, 2016. "Poverty, vulnerability, and the middle class in Latin America," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-44, December.
    3. Rosa Duarte & Sandra Ferrando-Latorre & José Alberto Molina, 2018. "How to escape poverty through education?: intergenerational evidence in Spain," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(9), pages 624-627, May.

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