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Do stress tests matter? A study on the impact of the disclosure of stress test results on European financial stocks and CDS markets

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  • Carlos Alves
  • Victor Mendes
  • Paulo Pereira da Silva

Abstract

During the recent sovereign debt crisis, the European Banking Authority conducted two stress tests on European banks in order to gauge their capital needs, core Tier-1 ratios and ratios of resilience to adverse shocks. We assess the informational content of the disclosure of the stress test outcomes. We conclude that the stress tests conveyed new information and that the outcomes were not anticipated by the stock market but were partially anticipated by the credit default swap (CDS) market. However, while the stock market reacted to the disclosure of the stress test outcomes, in the CDS market there is some evidence of a 'reverse' reaction. Moreover, the publication of the outcomes of the stress tests had a stronger impact on the stock prices of riskier financial institutions. A similar pattern is evident in the CDS market, albeit narrowed to one of the stress tests and amid the financial institutions with higher perceived credit risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Alves & Victor Mendes & Paulo Pereira da Silva, 2015. "Do stress tests matter? A study on the impact of the disclosure of stress test results on European financial stocks and CDS markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(12), pages 1213-1229, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:47:y:2015:i:12:p:1213-1229
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.993132
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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Rosa Borges & José Zorro Mendes & André Pereira, 2019. "The Value of Information: The Impact of European Union Bank Stress Tests on Stock Markets," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(4), pages 429-444, November.
    2. Lukas Ahnert & Pascal Vogt & Volker Vonhoff & Florian Weigert, 2018. "The Impact of Regulatory Stress Testing on Bank's Equity and CDS Performance," Working Papers on Finance 1814, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    3. Lukas Ahnert & Pascal Vogt & Volker Vonhoff & Florian Weigert, 2020. "Regulatory stress testing and bank performance," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(5), pages 1449-1488, November.
    4. Corbet, Shaen & Larkin, Charles, 2017. "Has the uniformity of banking regulation within the European Union restricted rather than encouraged sectoral development?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 48-65.
    5. Fiordelisi, Franco & Ricci, Ornella & Santilli, Gianluca, 2025. "Spotlight on physical risk: Assessing the banks' stock reaction to the ECB climate stress test," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    6. Nadine Gatzert & Dinah Heidinger, 2020. "An Empirical Analysis of Market Reactions to the First Solvency and Financial Condition Reports in the European Insurance Industry," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 87(2), pages 407-436, June.
    7. Amavi S. S. Agbodji & Emmanuelle Nys & Alain Sauviat, 2021. "Do CDS Maturities Matter in the Evaluation of the Information Content of Regulatory Banking Stress Tests? Evidence from European and US Stress Tests," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 72(1), pages 65-102.
    8. Ahnert, Lukas & Vogt, Pascal & Vonhoff, Volker & Weigert, Florian, 2020. "Regulatory stress testing and bank performance," CFR Working Papers 20-03, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    9. Paul Konietschke & Steven Ongena & Aurea Ponte Marques, 2022. "Stress tests and capital requirement disclosures: do they impact banks' lending and risk-taking decisions?," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-60, Swiss Finance Institute.
    10. Abad, Pilar & Robles, M.-Dolores & Alonso Orts, Carlos, 2023. "Stress testing programs and credit risk opacity of banks: USA vs Europe," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    11. Stefano Miani & Josanco Floreani & Andrea Paltrinieri, 2018. "Do Capital Adequacy and Credit Quality Affect Systematic Risk? Investigation of a Sample of European Listed Banks in Light of EBA Stress Tests," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(04), pages 1-31, December.
    12. Durrani, Agha & Ongena, Steven & Ponte Marques, Aurea, 2024. "Decoding market reactions: The certification role of EU-wide stress tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).

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