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How serious is the aggregation problem? An empirical illustration

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  • Bente Halvorsen
  • Bodil M. Larsen

Abstract

Heterogeneity in consumer behaviour may create problems with aggregation across consumers. If so, we may not be able to make correct inferences about behaviour based on aggregated data. However, using micro estimates to predict aggregate demand responses to policy changes may also create a bias if not aggregated properly. This may sound like a Catch 22 situation, but it is not, as it is possible to calculate both micro and aggregate demand responses based on microdata. The size of the aggregation bias is an empirical question. In this article, we show how to calculate theoretically consistent aggregate demand responses. We use both micro and macro data for Norwegian household electricity consumption to illustrate the magnitude and direction of different aggregation biases. We find considerable aggregation biases, in particular, when estimating with macro data.

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  • Bente Halvorsen & Bodil M. Larsen, 2013. "How serious is the aggregation problem? An empirical illustration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(26), pages 3786-3794, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:45:y:2013:i:26:p:3786-3794
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2012.732690
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frank Denton & Dean Mountain, 2004. "Aggregation effects on price and expenditure elasticities in a quadratic almost ideal demand system," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(3), pages 613-628, August.
    2. Denton, Frank T. & Mountain, Dean C., 2001. "Income distribution and aggregation/disaggregation biases in the measurement of consumer demand elasticities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 21-28, October.
    3. Lau, Lawrence J. & Wu, Ho-Mou, 1996. "Exact aggregation under summability and homogeneity with individually variable prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 329-335, March.
    4. Frank T. Denton & Dean C. Mountain, 2004. "Aggregation effects on price and expenditure elasticities in a quadratic almost ideal demand system," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 613-628, August.
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    1. O׳Connell, Niamh & Pinson, Pierre & Madsen, Henrik & O׳Malley, Mark, 2014. "Benefits and challenges of electrical demand response: A critical review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 686-699.
    2. Miller, Mark & Alberini, Anna, 2016. "Sensitivity of price elasticity of demand to aggregation, unobserved heterogeneity, price trends, and price endogeneity: Evidence from U.S. Data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 235-249.
    3. Benjamin Volland & Ivan Tilov, 2018. "Price elasticities of electricity demand in Switzerland: Results from a household panel," IRENE Working Papers 18-03, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    4. Favero, Filippo & Grossi, Luigi, 2023. "Analysis of individual natural gas consumption and price elasticity: Evidence from billing data in Italy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    5. Mark Miller & Anna Alberini, 2015. "Sensitivity of price elasticity of demand to aggregation, unobserved heterogeneity, price trends, and price endogeneity: Evidence from U.S. Data," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 15/223, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    6. Poblete-Cazenave, Miguel & Pachauri, Shonali, 2020. "A simulation-based estimation model of household electricity demand and appliance ownership," MPRA Paper 103403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Liddle, Brantley & Huntington, Hillard, 2021. "How prices, income, and weather shape household electricity demand in high-income and middle-income countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    8. Poblete-Cazenave, Miguel & Pachauri, Shonali, 2021. "A model of energy poverty and access: Estimating household electricity demand and appliance ownership," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).

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