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How widespread are nonlinear crowding out effects? The response of private transfers to income in four developing countries

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  • John Gibson
  • Susan Olivia
  • Scott Rozelle

Abstract

This article investigates the relationship between household income and private transfers received in developing countries. If private transfers are unresponsive to household income, there is less likelihood of expansions in public social security crowding out private transfers. Most literature finds that private transfers are unresponsive, but this may be because responses have been obscured by the methods that ignore nonlinearities. Threshold regression techniques find such nonlinearity in the Philippines and scope for serious crowding out, with 30-80% of private transfers potentially displaced for low-income households (Cox et al., 2004). To see if these nonlinear effects occur more widely, semiparametric and threshold regression methods are used to model private transfers in four developing countries - China, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Vietnam. The results reported in this article suggest that nonlinear crowding out effects are not important features of transfer behaviour in these countries. The transfer derivatives under a variety of assumptions only range between 0 and -0.08.

Suggested Citation

  • John Gibson & Susan Olivia & Scott Rozelle, 2011. "How widespread are nonlinear crowding out effects? The response of private transfers to income in four developing countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(27), pages 4053-4068.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:43:y:2011:i:27:p:4053-4068
    DOI: 10.1080/00036841003800831
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cameron, L. & Cobb-Clark, D., 2001. "Old-Age Support in Developing Countries: Labor Supply, Ingenerational Transfers and Living Arrangements," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 773, The University of Melbourne.
    2. Cameron, Lisa A. & Cobb-Clark, Deborah A., 2001. "Old-Age Support in Developing Countries: Labor Supply, Intergenerational Transfers and Living Arrangements," IZA Discussion Papers 289, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Kwon, Huck-Ju, 1999. "Income transfers to the elderly in East Asia: testing Asian values," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6487, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Huck-ju Kwon, 1999. "Income Transfers to the Elderly in East Asia: Testing Asian Values," CASE Papers 027, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hoddinott, John & Margolies, Amy, 2012. "Mapping the Impacts of Food Aid: Current Knowledge and Future Directions," WIDER Working Paper Series 034, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Hungerman, Daniel M., 2014. "Public goods, hidden income, and tax evasion: Some nonstandard results from the warm-glow model," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 188-202.
    3. La, Hai Anh & Xu, Ying, 2017. "Remittances, social security, and the crowding-out effect: Evidence from Vietnam," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 42-59.
    4. Margaret Grosh & Carlo del Ninno & Emil Tesliuc & Azedine Ouerghi, 2008. "For Protection and Promotion : The Design and Implementation of Effective Safety Nets," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6582, January.

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