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The behaviour of the US consumer price index 1913-2003: a study of seasonality in the monthly US CPI

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  • Shaikh Hamid
  • Tej Dhakar

Abstract

This article analyses the seasonality in the monthly consumer price index (CPI) over the period January 1913 to December 2003. We examine three types of month effects: if the mean of monthly CPI changes of the entire data set, and of a given month were significantly different from zero; if the mean of monthly CPI changes of a given month was different from the mean of the other months; and if the variance of the monthly CPI changes for a given month was different from the variance of the other months. The mean of monthly CPI changes for the entire data set (0.27%) was found to be significantly greater than zero. The means of monthly changes show a downward trend from September to December. When the data are sliced into three sub-periods, we find an increasing trend in the means and medians of monthly changes but a decreasing trend in the SDs of the monthly changes. The mean of monthly CPI changes during the republican presidencies (0.15%) was significantly lower than during the democratic presidencies (0.38%).

Suggested Citation

  • Shaikh Hamid & Tej Dhakar, 2008. "The behaviour of the US consumer price index 1913-2003: a study of seasonality in the monthly US CPI," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(13), pages 1637-1650.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:40:y:2008:i:13:p:1637-1650
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840600905159
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    References listed on IDEAS

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