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Evaluating market efficiency without price data: the Swedish market for wood fuel

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  • Runar Brannlund
  • Per-Olov Marklund
  • Magnus Sjostrom

Abstract

The overall objective of this paper is to analyse the price development and price formation for wood fuel used by the Swedish district heating sector. According to Lonner et al., there is a significant potential for increasing the use of wood fuel in Sweden, at a fairly moderate cost. The basic question raised in this paper is then why this potential is not realized. Specifically, a methodology is proposed for testing whether the reason is that market imperfections are present. As a first step the shape of the technology in the Swedish district heating sector is estimated for the period 1989 to 1996. In the second step the estimated technology and the assumption of cost-minimizing firms are combined to calculate shadow prices, i.e. marginal valuation of wood fuel in this sector. If the average shadow price significantly deviates from the average observed price one may conclude that this market is functioning inefficiently due to imperfections. According to constructed bootstrap confidence intervals this difference is significant only for three out of eight years, implying that the quantities of wood fuel traded are too small. For the other years the difference is not significant, implying that one cannot, on statistical grounds, reject the efficient market hypothesis for all years.

Suggested Citation

  • Runar Brannlund & Per-Olov Marklund & Magnus Sjostrom, 2004. "Evaluating market efficiency without price data: the Swedish market for wood fuel," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 31-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:1:p:31-39
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684042000177170
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Atkinson, Scott E & Kerkvliet, Joe, 1989. "Dual Measures of Monopoly and Monopsony Power: An Application to Regulated Electric Utilities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 250-257, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Linden, Mikael & Peltola-Ojala, Päivi, 2010. "The deregulation effects of Finnish electricity markets on district heating prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1191-1198, September.
    2. Geijer, Erik & Bostedt, Göran & Brännlund, Runar, 2011. "Damned if you do, damned if you do not--Reduced Climate Impact vs. Sustainable Forests in Sweden," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 94-106, January.
    3. Sjöström, Magnus, 2004. "Biofuels and Market Power - The Case of Swedish District Heating Plants," Umeå Economic Studies 634, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    4. Mikael Linden, Matti Makela, and Jussi Uusivuori, 2013. "Fuel Input Substitution under Tradable Carbon Permits System: Evidence from Finnish Energy Plants 2005-2008," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    5. Ankarhem, Mattias, 2005. "Effects of Increased Demand for Biofuels: A Dynamic Model of the Swedish Forest Sector," Umeå Economic Studies 658, Umeå University, Department of Economics.

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