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Smokeless tobacco, smoking cessation and harm reduction: an economic analysis

Author

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  • Richard Ault
  • Robert Ekelund
  • John Jackson
  • Richard Saba

Abstract

Good estimates place 'hard core' smoking rates in the United States at approximately 25%, with little change over the decade of the 1990s. This paper examines the possibilities of 'harm reduction' with the use of smokeless tobacco. Specifically, using an econometric model we seek to determine whether an increase in the use of smokeless tobacco would lead to reduced smoking rates in the United States. Applying our model to the NHANES III (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey) we find that the use of smokeless tobacco by an average U.S. male smoker would increase the average probability of smoke cessation by over 10%. Approximately 3 million additional 'quits' would result for 26 million smokers. Our study permits an examination of cessation by age groups and we find that males who use smokeless tobacco between 16 and 65 have a 10-14% probability of quitting but that the probability falls beyond age 66. Important implications for life extension and health costs would attend these results with, under conservative assumptions, life years saved approximating 2.16 million and health care cost-savings of about $3 billion per year.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Ault & Robert Ekelund & John Jackson & Richard Saba, 2004. "Smokeless tobacco, smoking cessation and harm reduction: an economic analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 17-29.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:1:p:17-29
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684042000177161
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Saba, Richard P, et al, 1995. "The Demand for Cigarette Smuggling," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(2), pages 189-202, April.
    2. Baltagi, Badi H & Levin, Dan, 1986. "Estimating Dynamic Demand for Cigarettes Using Panel Data: The Effects of Bootlegging, Taxation and Advertising Reconsidered," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(1), pages 148-155, February.
    3. Suranovic, Steven M. & Goldfarb, Robert S. & Leonard, Thomas C., 1999. "An economic theory of cigarette addiction," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-29, January.
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    1. Dave, Dhaval & Saffer, Henry, 2013. "Demand for smokeless tobacco: Role of advertising," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 682-697.
    2. Kostova, Deliana & Dave, Dhaval, 2015. "Smokeless tobacco use in India: Role of prices and advertising," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 82-90.
    3. John Tauras & Lisa Powell & Frank Chaloupka & Hana Ross, 2007. "The demand for smokeless tobacco among male high school students in the United States: the impact of taxes, prices and policies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 31-41.

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