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Currency crises in Brazil: the role of the fundamentals and the rumours


  • Joaquim Pinto De Andrade
  • Joseangelo Divino


The paper aims at identification of the main explanatory factors of the currency crises in Brazil. Following Choueiri and Kaminsky (1997) a VAR monetary model is used and the historical decomposition procedure developed by Sims (1980) to evaluate the importance of the 'fundamentals' represented by fiscal/monetary and exchange-rate policies, and the 'external factors' represented by foreign interest rates and contagious effects. The main results show the importance of the exchange-rate management on the overall period and the contagious effects more recently to explain the Brazilian currency crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Joaquim Pinto De Andrade & Joseangelo Divino, 2001. "Currency crises in Brazil: the role of the fundamentals and the rumours," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 887-898.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:33:y:2001:i:7:p:887-898
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840121646

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    2. Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F & Nielsen, Bent, 1998. " Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-572, December.
    3. Nielsen, Bent & Rahbek, Anders, 2000. " Similarity Issues in Cointegration Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(1), pages 5-22, February.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
    7. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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