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On the European monetary system: the spillover effects of German shocks and disinflation

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  • Julius Horvath
  • Magda Kandil
  • Subhash Sharma

Abstract

We analyse the disinflationary experience between 1979-93 for two traditionally inflationary countries of the European Monetary System: France and Italy. For each country, a vector autoregressive model is estimated. Shocks in the model combine domestic and foreign sources. The latter capture the world oil price shocks as well as nominal and real shocks originating in Germany. Under investigation is the hypothesis that shocks originating in Germany have a spillover disinflationary effect in France and Italy. The empirical evidence provides support to the validity of this hypothesis. Furthermore, German shocks account for an important share of the total price variance in France and Italy. These results indicate that the interaction between countries of the European Monetary System has contributed to the success of the disinflationary experiences of the 1980s. The evidence sheds, therefore, some light on potential benefits that may be further realized as countries of the European Monetary System move towards their objective of achieving a single currency under a united monetary system.

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  • Julius Horvath & Magda Kandil & Subhash Sharma, 1998. "On the European monetary system: the spillover effects of German shocks and disinflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(12), pages 1585-1593.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:30:y:1998:i:12:p:1585-1593
    DOI: 10.1080/000368498324661
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    1. Hakan Berument & Nildag Basak Ceylan & Bengisu Vural, 2006. "The effects of Japanese economic performance on Indonesia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 499-502.
    2. Jorge Eduardo Carrera & Mariano Feliz & Demian Panigo & Marcelo Saavedra, 2001. "Dollarization as an Asymmetric Monetary Union. The Case of Argentina," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 043, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

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