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Is the real interest rate unstable? Some new evidence

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  • Kon Lai

Abstract

Prior studies typically report that real Treasury bill returns have a unit root. The unit-root findings are not consistent with the long-run Fisher effect and consumptionbased asset pricing models. This study examines a data set of ex ante real returns on US Treasury bills and commercial papers. The statistical analysis employs a new modified Dickey-Fuller test, whc has better power than standard unit-root tests. In contrast to previous findings, strong evidence of stationarity is found for all the real return series under examination. Implications of the results are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Kon Lai, 1997. "Is the real interest rate unstable? Some new evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 359-364.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:29:y:1997:i:3:p:359-364
    DOI: 10.1080/000368497327137
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tai-Hu Ling, & Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Syed Azizi Wafa Syed Khalid Wafa, 2007. "Real Interest Rates Equalization: The Case of Malaysia and Singapore," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 24-37, August.
    2. Smets, Frank & Tsatsaronis, Kostas, 1997. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Economic Activity? Dissecting the Evidence for Germany and the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 1758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. C C Tsong & A Hachicha, 2014. "Revisiting the Fisher Hypothesis for Several Selected Developing Economies: a Quantile Cointegration Approach," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 19(1), pages 57-72, March.
    4. Lai, Kon S., 2008. "The puzzling unit root in the real interest rate and its inconsistency with intertemporal consumption behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 140-155, February.
    5. Lai, Kon S., 2004. "On structural shifts and stationarity of the ex ante real interest rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 217-228.

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