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Correct Cointegration Tests of the Long Run Relationship Between Nominal Interest and Inflation

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  • Carl Bonham

    () (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)

Abstract

The Fisher (1930) hypothesis suggests that a long run equilibrium relationship exists between the nonstationary series: nominal interest and expected inflation. Testing such a cointegrating relationship is complicated by the presence of the unobserved ex ante real rate of interest in residuals from the cointegrating regression. Assumptions concerning the stochastic properties of the expected real rate of interest are examined and two proxies for the ex ante real rate are employed in multivariate cointegration tests of the Fisher hypothesis.
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Suggested Citation

  • Carl Bonham, 1991. "Correct Cointegration Tests of the Long Run Relationship Between Nominal Interest and Inflation," Working Papers 199104, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:199104
    Note: To request a hard copy of this paper, please email the department at econ@hawaii.edu.
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    Cited by:

    1. Westerlund, J., 2006. "Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect," Research Memorandum 054, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    2. Månsson, Kristofer & Shukur, Ghazi & Sjölander, Pär, 2012. "Testing for Panel Cointegration in an Error Correction Framework - with an Application to the Fisher Hypothesis," HUI Working Papers 72, HUI Research.
    3. Claus, I., 1997. "A Measure of Underlying Inflation in the United States," Staff Working Papers 97-20, Bank of Canada.
    4. Westerlund, Joakim, 2005. "Panel Cointegration Tests of the Fisher Hypothesis," Working Papers 2005:10, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    5. Yin-Wong Cheung & Javier Gardeazabal & Jesús Vázquez, 2004. "Exchange Rate Dynamics: Where is the Saddle Path?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1129, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. Paul Johnson, 2006. "Is it really the Fisher effect?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 201-203.
    7. Kate Phylaktis & David Blake, 1993. "The fisher hypothesis: Evidence from three high inflation economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 129(3), pages 591-599, September.
    8. Takayasu Ito, 2009. "Fisher Hypothesis in Japan: Analysis of Long-term Interest Rates under Different Monetary Policy Regimes," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(7), pages 1019-1035, July.
    9. Joakim Westerlund, 2008. "Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 193-233.
    10. Junttila, Juha, 2001. "Testing an Augmented Fisher Hypothesis for a Small Open Economy: The Case of Finland," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 577-599, October.
    11. Francesca Di Iorio & Stefano Fachin, 2009. "A residual-based bootstrap test for panel cointegration," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 3222-3232.
    12. Maghyereh, A. & Al-Zoubi, H., 2006. "Does Fisher Effect Apply in Developing Countries: Evidence From a Nonlinear Cotrending Test applied to Argentina, Brazil, Malysia, Mexico, Korea and Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(2).

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