Is it Really the Fisher Effect?
Fahmy and Kandil  use a cointegration approach to test for the Fisher effect in US interest rates during the 1980s and early 1990s. Here, I argue that even if nominal interest rates and inflation rates do obey integrated processes, cointegration of these two processes is not a sufficient condition for the Fisher effect to hold as it is consistent with any theory implying a stationary real interest rate. As the Fisher effect ex post implies that nominal interest rates embody an optimal inflation forecast, the sufficient condition for it to hold is the unpredictability of the implied inflation forecast error. This condition may be tested using the signal extraction framework of Durlauf and Hall [1988, 1989].
|Date of creation:||Jan 2004|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Maildrop 708, 124 Raymond Avenue, Poughkeepsie NY 12604-0708|
Web page: http://irving.vassar.edu/VCEWP/VCEWP.htm
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carl Bonham, 1991.
"Correct Cointegration Tests of the Long Run Relationship Between Nominal Interest and Inflation,"
199104, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
- Carl Bonham, 1990. "Correct Cointegration Tests of the Long Run Relationship Between Nominal Interest and Inflation," Working Papers 199026, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
- John Huizinga & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1985.
"Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and the Unusual Behavior of Real Interest Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
1678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Huizinga, John & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986. "Monetary policy regime shifts and the unusual behavior of real interest rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 231-274, January.
- Crowder, William J & Hoffman, Dennis L, 1996. "The Long-Run Relationship between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: The Fisher Equation Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 102-18, February.
- Fahmy, Yasser A. F. & Kandil, Magda, 2003. "The Fisher effect: new evidence and implications," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 451-465.
- William J. Crowder, 1997. "The Long-Run Fisher Relation in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1124-1142, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vas:papers:58. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sean Flynn)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.