On Estimation of Volatility Surface and Prediction of Future Spot Volatility
A stochastic process v(t) is considered as a model for asset's spot volatility. A new approach is introduced for predicting future spot volatility and future volatility surface using a finite set of observed option prices. When the volatility parameter σ2 in the Black-Scholes formula[image omitted] is represented by the integrated volatility [image omitted] , then the local volatility surface can be estimated. The main idea is to linearize the expressions for implied volatility by using a result on Normal correlation. This linearization is obtained by introducing various ad hoc approximations.
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Volume (Year): 13 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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- Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella & Nadima El-Hassan & Xiaosu Zheng, 2000. "The Reduction of Forward Rate Dependent Volatility HJM Models to Markovian Form: Pricing European Bond Option," Research Paper Series 36, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
- Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1993. "Forecasting Stock-Return Variance: Toward an Understanding of Stochastic Implied Volatilities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 293-326.
- Laurence K. Eisenberg & Robert A. Jarrow, 1991. "Option pricing with random volatilities in complete markets," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 91-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
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